452
FXUS65 KVEF 051012
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
212 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A PASSING SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASED WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY, ALONG
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN SIERRA.
* OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM COMES ASHORE THIS MORNING IN THE PACNW. MORE OF
GLANCING BLOW, NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD, IMPACTFUL WINDS IN OUR
AREA. CHANCES FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS ARE BELOW 25% IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS THAT COULD SEE WIND IMPACTS TODAY.
THE FIRST IS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY. CHANCES FOR 55+
MPH WINDS IN THE SIERRA ARE HIGH (75%), WHILE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 40+ MPH GUSTS IN THE OWENS VALLEY ARE MORE OF A TOSS UP
(~50%). GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE SETUP, I BELIEVE THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT UNDERSTATED, THUS OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE OWENS VALLEY AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE
LOCALIZED AND MOST LIKELY IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE, BUT THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (10-20%) OF ISOLATED 55+ MPH GUSTS. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
TRAVEL ON US-395, PARTICULARLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES. ANOTHER
SPOT FOR POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS IS ALONG US-95 NEAR DESERT
ROCK/MERCURY. HERE, CHANCES FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS ARE AROUND 50%, BUT
THE VERY LOCALIZED NATURE PRECLUDES ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND THE WINDS, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE EASTERN SIERRA LATER TODAY, BUT WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 9000
FEET, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN BELOW 10%.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY, BUT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. THIS PERSISTS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRY AND CALMER CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
8KT OR LESS FOLLOWING DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE MORNING. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND 8 KNOTS BETWEEN 17-19Z BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 TO 25
KNOTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING, WITH 8 TO 12 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 25KFT AGL OVERSPREADING THE AREA
BY SUNRISE, AND FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT AGL BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME ELEVATED, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT COMMON. ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KBIH WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AROUND 15-25 KNOTS, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS TO REACH THE TERMINAL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, WHERE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL DROP OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH WINDS
DECREASING IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL, WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BETWEEN 15-25KFT AGL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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