193
FXUS65 KVEF 051813
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1013 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* A PASSING SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASED WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY, ALONG
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN SIERRA.
* OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM COMES ASHORE THIS MORNING IN THE PACNW. MORE OF
GLANCING BLOW, NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD, IMPACTFUL WINDS IN OUR
AREA. CHANCES FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS ARE BELOW 25% IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS THAT COULD SEE WIND IMPACTS TODAY.
THE FIRST IS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY. CHANCES FOR 55+
MPH WINDS IN THE SIERRA ARE HIGH (75%), WHILE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 40+ MPH GUSTS IN THE OWENS VALLEY ARE MORE OF A TOSS UP
(~50%). GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE SETUP, I BELIEVE THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE A BIT UNDERSTATED, THUS OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE OWENS VALLEY AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE
LOCALIZED AND MOST LIKELY IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE, BUT THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (10-20%) OF ISOLATED 55+ MPH GUSTS. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
TRAVEL ON US-395, PARTICULARLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES. ANOTHER
SPOT FOR POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS IS ALONG US-95 NEAR DESERT
ROCK/MERCURY. HERE, CHANCES FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS ARE AROUND 50%, BUT
THE VERY LOCALIZED NATURE PRECLUDES ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND THE WINDS, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE EASTERN SIERRA LATER TODAY, BUT WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 9000
FEET, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN BELOW 10%.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY, BUT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. THIS PERSISTS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRY AND CALMER CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
BRIEFLY SHIFT EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 KNOTS BEFORE TURNING TO THE
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WEAKEN BUT REMAIN OVER 10
KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN TOMORROW
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND
25KFT AGL AND FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. ONE EXCEPTION IS KBIH,
WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST BEFORE FLIPPING TO THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE FOR WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS REACHING THE TERMINAL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, WHERE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL, WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BETWEEN 15-25KFT AGL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...MELTZER
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