981
FXUS65 KVEF 210541
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
938 PM PST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
* SNOW ACCUMULATION TRENDED DOWN WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE,
WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA/WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE SPRING MOUNTAINS/SHEEP RANGE.
* COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW,
WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WILL END
TONIGHT AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
BRING UP TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND INYO COUNTIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM 2AM PST TO 7AM PST. LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN
VALLEYS UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD BRING LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WILL SEE UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT FORM, WITH A SHARP
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT FROM THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.
LIMITED INSTABILITY PAIRED WITH THE TIMING OF THE COOLEST AIR
PASSING OVERNIGHT KEEPS LIGHTNING POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION LOW,
LESS THAN 10% FOR THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AS THE LOW CENTER
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE FROM 5-10 INCHES WILL FAVOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH TRENDS INDICATING LOWER AMOUNTS (3-8
INCHES) FOR HIGH TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. THEREFORE, WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000
FEET. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH
SUMMITS SEEING UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW BY TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND RETURNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
FORECAST MODELS FAVOR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE REGION BUT THIS REGIME TYPICALLY FAVORS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES.
THIS COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK, BUT
CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THAT OUTCOME IS LOW.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING.
DURING THIS TIME, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO BECOME
EASTERLY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH A RETURN TOMORROW EVENING. LAS IS GOING TO
BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY, SO IT WILL LIKELY
BE A TRANSIENT TAF PERIOD BETWEEN SHRA/VCSH. NONETHELESS, AN
IMPACTFUL TAF PERIOD IS ON TAP WITH CEILINGS LIKELY BELOW FL050 FOR
A MAJORITY OF IT. DIURNAL WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW-END VFR
TO HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS AND DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW WITH
AN AFTERNOON RESURGENCE NORTH EXPECTED. IN AND AROUND THE
PRECIPITATION, EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES, LOWERED CEILINGS, AND
SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN OBSCURATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...ADAMS
AVIATION...SARMENT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page