157
FXUS65 KVEF 211805
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1005 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, WITH ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
* AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC,
EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
A CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT,
INCLUDING SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY,
AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY, WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED INSTANCES WHERE TRAINING SHOWERS OVER SATURATED
SOILS RESULT IN ROADWAY PONDING AND/OR WATER FLOWING THROUGH LOW
WATER CROSSINGS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS INYO, SOUTHERN NYE, CLARK,
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES, SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN-
NATURE, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM RAINFALL EXPECTED. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, SHEEP RANGE, EASTERN
SIERRA SLOPES, AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
TIME AT 8 AM PST THIS MORNING, AS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
THEREAFTER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF AREA MOUNTAINS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL WANE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PUSHES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHICH IS CONDUCIVE
FOR THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE WIND-MAKERS. AS A RESULT, IF YOU'RE
PLANNING TO RECREATE AT AREA LAKES NEXT WEEK, CHECK THE FORECAST
IN ADVANCE, AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN
BE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, WITH INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING. CONFIDENCE FOR DIRECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL ARE LOW, HOWEVER, THERE IS A WINDOW OF
HIGHER CONFIDENCE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL, RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CEILINGS AROUND 3KFT AND VISIBILITY TO 6SM. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS, EXPECT BKN-OVC CEILINGS AROUND 5KFT, IMPROVING
TO AROUND 8-12KFT LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS LARGELY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS SETTLING OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 10-12KT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCT-BKN CEILINGS AROUND 4-6KFT ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 2-3KFT AND VISIBILITY AROUND
5-6SM WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO
8-12KFT AREAWIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, INCREASING TO AROUND 8-12KT FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN
MOJAVE WHERE VARIABLE/EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 12-15KT ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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