204
FXUS65 KVEF 212216
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
216 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
PUSH FROM WRAPAROUND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH STRAY SHOWERS LINGERING IN
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TOMORROW.
* A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TOMORROW EVENING, WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
ANTICIPATED MIDWEEK THANKS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE
REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MEANDER INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
EVENING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION
YESTERDAY OF 0.44 INCHES IN DEATH VALLEY! SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BRIEFLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ANOTHER PUSH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER
CLARK COUNTY AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 8PM
PST AND 12AM PST, WITH AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
MINIMAL, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TOMORROW EVENING. AREAS OF
LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER COULD OCCUR WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS, PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
NEAR THE CA-AZ BORDER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH STRAY SHOWERS
CONTINUING TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD DRYING WILL OCCUR
BY SUNDAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL HELP MOVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE REGION, AIDING IN BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION BY
THANKSGIVING DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER CUT
OFF LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, WITH INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING. CONFIDENCE FOR DIRECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL ARE LOW, HOWEVER, THERE IS A WINDOW OF
HIGHER CONFIDENCE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL, RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CEILINGS AROUND 3KFT AND VISIBILITY TO 6SM. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS, EXPECT BKN-OVC CEILINGS AROUND 5KFT, IMPROVING
TO AROUND 8-12KFT LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS LARGELY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS SETTLING OUT OF THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 10-12KT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCT-BKN CEILINGS AROUND 4-6KFT ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 2-3KFT AND VISIBILITY AROUND
5-6SM WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO
8-12KFT AREAWIDE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, INCREASING TO AROUND 8-12KT FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN
MOJAVE WHERE VARIABLE/EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 12-15KT ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...ADAMS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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