375
FXUS65 KVEF 222227
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
227 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* AS THE PERSISTENT SYSTEM MOVES OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA, THERE'S
RISING CONFIDENCE IN A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
* AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
* THERE IS INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER COOLER AND WETTER
SYSTEM MOVING IN NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS OVERSTAYED ITS WELCOME WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING. LIMITED ACCUMULATION OF PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED IN WEAKER SHOWERS, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR STRONGER SHOWERS THAT FORM. BRIEF DAYTIME CLEARING
WILL HELP AMPLIFY ELEVATED INSTABILITY, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND MOHAVE COUNTY (20-40%
CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 5PM PST
AND 12AM PST, WITH A FEW HI-RES MODELS SHOWING A STORM OVER THE LAS
VEGAS AREA BETWEEN 6PM PST AND 10PM PST THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE (30-40% CHANCE) WITH ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING. DUE TO
THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS LINGERING
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA TONIGHT, WITH BROAD CLEARING
AND A RETURN TO WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO BRING ELEVATED
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE LARGER WAVES OVER LAKE MEAD AND LAKE
HAVASU, SO USE CAUTION IF RECREATING IN THESE AREAS.
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW INCREASING ALIGNMENT IN ANOTHER TROUGH
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT VARIATION ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO COLD AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND AFTER THANKSGIVING IS INCREASING.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS AT THE
TERMINAL LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN IS A BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING WHEN
THERE IS ROUGHLY A 20-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THESE SHOWERS, WHICH WOULD PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVIER RAINFALL. OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
WHERE VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO 6SM OR LESS AND CEILINGS TO 3KFT,
EXPECT BKN-OVC CEILINGS AROUND 5-8KFT, GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WHILE SPORADIC GUSTS TO
15KT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS
TO EXCEED 20KT. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
AT LEAST AN INTERMITTENT BASIS THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-15. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. IN
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS, CEILINGS 3KFT OR LESS AND VISIBILITY
AROUND 5-6SM CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT OTHERWISE, CEILINGS THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 5-10KFT. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...ADAMS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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