329
FXUS65 KVEF 222346
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
346 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* AS THE PERSISTENT SYSTEM MOVES OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA, THERE'S
RISING CONFIDENCE IN A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND MOHAVE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
* AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
* THERE IS INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER COOLER AND WETTER
SYSTEM MOVING IN NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS OVERSTAYED ITS WELCOME WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING. LIMITED ACCUMULATION OF PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED IN WEAKER SHOWERS, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR STRONGER SHOWERS THAT FORM. BRIEF DAYTIME CLEARING
WILL HELP AMPLIFY ELEVATED INSTABILITY, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND MOHAVE COUNTY (20-40%
CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 5PM PST
AND 12AM PST, WITH A FEW HI-RES MODELS SHOWING A STORM OVER THE LAS
VEGAS AREA BETWEEN 6PM PST AND 10PM PST THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE (30-40% CHANCE) WITH ANY STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING. DUE TO
THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS LINGERING
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA TONIGHT, WITH BROAD CLEARING
AND A RETURN TO WARM AND SUNNY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO BRING ELEVATED
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE LARGER WAVES OVER LAKE MEAD AND LAKE
HAVASU, SO USE CAUTION IF RECREATING IN THESE AREAS.
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW INCREASING ALIGNMENT IN ANOTHER TROUGH
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SLIGHT VARIATION ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO COLD AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND AFTER THANKSGIVING IS INCREASING.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
ONE
LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH
A ROUGHLY A 20-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, RESULTING
IN CEILINGS AROUND 3-5KFT AND VISIBILITY TO 6SM OR LESS. OUTSIDE
OF THIS ACTIVITY, EXPECT BKN-OVC CEILINGS AROUND 8-10KFT,
GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH DAYBREAK AS SHOWERS DIMINISH AND MOVE
EAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING,
WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SUNDAY MORNING ONWARD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-15. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN CEILINGS 3KFT OR LESS AND
VISIBILITY AROUND 5-6SM. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE AROUND 5-10KFT, IMPROVING THROUGH DAYBREAK AS PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHES AND MOVES EAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH LATE
EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT, INCLUDING DAG, WHERE WESTERLY WINDS 10-15KT WILL DEVELOP
LATE MORNING ONWARD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...ADAMS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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