785
FXUS65 KVEF 162027
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1227 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
* A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES LATE WEEK.
* WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO BRING WEATHER IMPACTS TO
THE REGION AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY LOW IMPACT WEATHER. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
WEDNESDAY COULD RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE SIERRA
THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THERE IS WEAK
DOWNSLOPE SIGNAL ON THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES BUT THE OVERALL SET UP
LOOKS DISJOINTED AND NOT IDEAL. A FEW HI-RES WIND MODELS SHOW
ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE WESTERLY GUSTS OVER 25 MPH CROSS US-395
BRIEFLY, MAINLY NORTH OF INDEPENDENCE AFTER 2 PM, BUT WITH WIDESPREAD
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ON THE SLOPES INTO THE
VALLEY UNDER 20% COMBINED WITH A LACKLUSTER DOWNSLOPE SET UP, WIND
IMP SHOULD BE MINOR AND SHORT LIVED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS IS 10% OF LESS. BY THURSDAY, THE
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND WE LOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND IMPACTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH LOW SUN ANGLES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROMOTE INVERSIONS IN CERTAIN NARROW VALLEYS INCLUDING DEATH VALLEY,
WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY RELATIVELY COOL FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFT MORE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL LINK
UP WITH A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW (20-30%)
CHANCES IN PARTS OF NORTHERN INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES AND A MODERATE
(40%-50%) CHANCE IN THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED. IN
ADDITION, PROBABILISTIC WSSI SHOWS ONLY A 20% CHANCE FOR MODERATE
WINTER IMPACTS IN THE SIERRA, MAINLY AT THE PEAKS AS SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH. CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTING MINOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW IMPACTS
IN THESE AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, WITH WEAK
FORCING AND A LOWER END ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO
SPREAD EAST OVER THE TERRAIN AND, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, CONTINUING TO WATCH A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AS DEEP TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. CLUSTER ANALYSIS ALL SHOW SOME FLAVOR OF A
DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST, HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THE TROUGH AND HOW IT SHIFTS INLAND, WHICH
WILL DRIVE LOCAL IMPACTS. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE LONGER RANGE THANKS TO MOISTURE ADVECTION
WITHIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS
POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT 8-14 DAY CPC OFFICIAL OUTLOOK
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WEATHER
IMPACTS FOR THE HOLIDAYS AND/OR HOLIDAY TRAVEL AS CONFIDENCE THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE IS LOW.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED.
EAST WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 21Z TODAY, BUT THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 8KT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 8KT
WILL RETURN AROUND SUNSET FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 25KFT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE SKIES CLEAR FOR WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ELEVATED NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS AT 10-15KT AND GUSTS 20-25KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, LINGERING THE
LONGEST AT KIFP. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AROUND 20KFT-25KFT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX TUE, DEC 16 WED, DEC 17 THU, DEC 18
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 74(1980) 71(1942)* 72(1939)*
BISHOP 72(1980)* 72(1998)* 72(1999)*
NEEDLES 79(1980)* 77(1980)* 75(2024)*
DAGGETT 76(1998) 76(1998) 80(1998)
KINGMAN 71(1969)* 70(1980)* 74(1980)*
DESERT ROCK 73(1980)* 72(1998)* 69(2024)*
DEATH VALLEY 84(1998) 88(1998) 86(1998)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN TUE, DEC 16 WED, DEC 17 THU, DEC 18
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 49(2002)* 47(2010)* 48(1962)*
BISHOP 38(1957) 33(1978)* 38(2010)*
NEEDLES 62(1980) 61(1998) 57(2010)
DAGGETT 49(1981)* 49(1983)* 50(1980)*
KINGMAN 48(1957) 44(1980)* 46(2010)*
DESERT ROCK 49(1998) 41(2014) 45(2024)*
DEATH VALLEY 66(1998) 60(1998) 58(1914)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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