744
FXUS65 KVEF 162341
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
341 PM PST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
* A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES LATE WEEK.
* WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO BRING WEATHER IMPACTS TO
THE REGION AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY LOW IMPACT WEATHER. INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY COULD RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS IN
THE SIERRA THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
THERE IS WEAK DOWNSLOPE SIGNAL ON THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES BUT
THE OVERALL SET UP LOOKS DISJOINTED AND NOT IDEAL. A FEW HI-RES
WIND MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE WESTERLY GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
CROSS US-395 BRIEFLY, MAINLY NORTH OF INDEPENDENCE AFTER 2 PM, BUT
WITH WIDESPREAD PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ON THE
SLOPES INTO THE VALLEY UNDER 20% COMBINED WITH A LACKLUSTER
DOWNSLOPE SET UP, WIND IMP SHOULD BE MINOR AND SHORT LIVED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL
WINDS IS 10% OF LESS. BY THURSDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND
WE LOSE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND IMPACTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH
LOW SUN ANGLES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PROMOTE INVERSIONS IN
CERTAIN NARROW VALLEYS INCLUDING DEATH VALLEY, WHICH MEANS
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY RELATIVELY COOL FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFT MORE SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED ZONAL FLOW WHICH
WILL LINK UP WITH A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
LOW (20-30%) CHANCES IN PARTS OF NORTHERN INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTIES
AND A MODERATE (40%-50%) CHANCE IN THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND.
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
DECREASED. IN ADDITION, PROBABILISTIC WSSI SHOWS ONLY A 20% CHANCE
FOR MODERATE WINTER IMPACTS IN THE SIERRA, MAINLY AT THE PEAKS AS
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH. CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTING MINOR RAIN
AND/OR SNOW IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, WITH WEAK FORCING AND A LOWER END ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER, MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE TERRAIN
AND, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, CONTINUING TO WATCH A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AS DEEP TROUGHING TAKES
SHAPE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. CLUSTER ANALYSIS ALL SHOW SOME
FLAVOR OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST, HOWEVER THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THE TROUGH AND HOW IT SHIFTS
INLAND, WHICH WILL DRIVE LOCAL IMPACTS. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOWS
SOME PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES IN THE LONGER RANGE THANKS TO
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT 8-14 DAY
CPC OFFICIAL OUTLOOK FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOCUSED ACROSS CALIFORNIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE HOLIDAYS AND/OR HOLIDAY TRAVEL AS
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS LOW.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 8KT.
BANDS OF CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 15KFT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10KT. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY INCLUDING BIH WHERE GUSTY DOWNVALLEY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
A WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY, ELEVATED AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 20-30KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE, INCLUDING DAG, WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONWARD. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL WITH PASSING
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 20KFT, GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX TUE, DEC 16 WED, DEC 17 THU, DEC 18
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 74(1980) 71(1942)* 72(1939)*
BISHOP 72(1980)* 72(1998)* 72(1999)*
NEEDLES 79(1980)* 77(1980)* 75(2024)*
DAGGETT 76(1998) 76(1998) 80(1998)
KINGMAN 71(1969)* 70(1980)* 74(1980)*
DESERT ROCK 73(1980)* 72(1998)* 69(2024)*
DEATH VALLEY 84(1998) 88(1998) 86(1998)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN TUE, DEC 16 WED, DEC 17 THU, DEC 18
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 49(2002)* 47(2010)* 48(1962)*
BISHOP 38(1957) 33(1978)* 38(2010)*
NEEDLES 62(1980) 61(1998) 57(2010)
DAGGETT 49(1981)* 49(1983)* 50(1980)*
KINGMAN 48(1957) 44(1980)* 46(2010)*
DESERT ROCK 49(1998) 41(2014) 45(2024)*
DEATH VALLEY 66(1998) 60(1998) 58(1914)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...NICKERSON
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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