430
FXUS65 KVEF 172251
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
251 PM PST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY WINDS TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OUR AREA TODAY,
BUT OTHERWISE MILD AND CALM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
* A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
PORTIONS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
* WE ARE CONTINUING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.
BREEZY WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN SIERRA,
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND FAR WESTERN MOJAVE DESERTS. ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT MOST WIND GUSTS WILL FALL
IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, PUSHING THE JET FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND NORTHWESTERN ESMERALDA
COUNTY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SIERRA. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LIMIT NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SIERRA CREST AS THEY
WILL BE ABOVE 9,000 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DROPPING INTO THE
8,000 TO 9,000 RANGE ON EARLY MONDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.
AS WE LOOK AHEAD TO CHRISTMASTIME, WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING MID-TO-LATE
NEXT WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER, THE LITTLE DETAILS, SUCH AS HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE WHEN IT IMPACTS THE
AREA REMAIN UNCERTAIN. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS, WHICH MAY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM SO BE SURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST IF YOU ARE
PLANNING ON TRAVELING THIS HOLIDAY SEASON.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 8KT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL, WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20 KFT FILTERING
THROUGH THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ELSEWHERE, DOWNVALLEY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE OWENS VALLEY, INCLUDING BIH, THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES.
ADDITIONALLY, ELEVATED AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE, INCLUDING DAG, FROM THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THEN DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES, WITH PASSING BANDS OF HIGH
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL, GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX WED, DEC 17 THU, DEC 18 FRI, DEC 19
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 71(1942)* 72(1939) 68(2024)*
BISHOP 72(1998)* 72(1999)* 69(1985)*
NEEDLES 77(1980)* 75(2024)* 76(2024)*
DAGGETT 76(1998)* 80(1998) 76(1950)*
KINGMAN 70(1980)* 74(1980) 76(1917)
DESERT ROCK 72(1998)* 69(2024)* 69(2024)*
DEATH VALLEY 88(1998) 86(1998) 75(1950)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN WED, DEC 17 THU, DEC 18 FRI, DEC 19
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 47(2010)* 48(1962)* 55(2010)
BISHOP 33(1978)* 38(2010) 48(1999)
NEEDLES 61(1998) 57(2010) 58(2010)
DAGGETT 49(1983)* 50(1980)* 48(1980)*
KINGMAN 44(1980)* 46(2010)* 49(2010)
DESERT ROCK 41(2014)* 45(2024)* 50(2010)
DEATH VALLEY 60(1998) 58(1914) 56(1914)*
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/CLIMATE..STESSMAN
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