618
FXUS65 KVEF 180827
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1227 AM PST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MILD AND CALM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF INYO AND
ESMERALDA COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
REMAINS DRY.
* CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AND SNOW IMPACTS AROUND CHRISTMASTIME IS SLOWLY
INCREASING, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING HOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY, TRANSITIONING TO MORE
ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY. THIS KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET AND WARM, WITH
HIGHS CONTINUING TO RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AS AFTERNOON BREEZES GENERALLY STAY IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SIERRA. THE ZONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION BEING
INTERCEPTED BY THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. POPS IN OUR PORTION OF THE SIERRA
RANGE FROM 20-50%, INCREASING WITH LATITUDE. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN
OWENS VALLEY AND WESTERN ESMERALDA COUNTY HAVE 20-35% POPS.
PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY LIGHT (75% CHANCE
OF LESS THAN 0.25"), WHILE THE SIERRA IS LIKELY (75%) TO REMAIN
BELOW 1.00". SNOW LEVELS STAY AT OR ABOVE 9000 FEET THROUGHOUT MOST
OR ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION, SO CONCERN OF WINTER IMPACTS IS LOW.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL DRAW UP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. BARRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK, THE MOUNTAINS WILL
FARE WELL PRECIPITATION-WISE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEYS
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE TRAJECTORY.
GIVEN THE WARM, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, NOT ANTICIPATING SNOW LEVELS TO
BE THAT LOW, BUT LOCATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF SEEING WINTER IMPACTS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S
EVOLUTION AND TRACK, WIND IMPACTS MAY BE ON THE TABLE AS WELL. ALL
THIS TO SAY, KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AS
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 8KT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, AS BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER
THE VALLEY, WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 20KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT THIS EVENING, WITH SPEEDS IN MOST
AREAS FALLING BELOW 12 KNOTS. WINDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA AND REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH LOCALIZED TERRAIN-DRIVEN GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED IN
THE VICINITY OF IFP IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY, AS BANDS OF HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE REGION, WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 20KFT AGL.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX THU, DEC 18 FRI, DEC 19 SAT, DEC 20
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 72(1939)* 68(2024)* 73(1981)
BISHOP 72(1999)* 69(1985)* 71(1972)*
NEEDLES 75(2024)* 76(2024)* 76(1981)*
DAGGETT 80(1998) 76(1950)* 78(1981)
KINGMAN 74(1980) 76(1917) 74(1917)
DESERT ROCK 69(2024)* 69(2024)* 69(2020)
DEATH VALLEY 86(1998) 75(1950) 79(1999)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN THU, DEC 18 FRI, DEC 19 SAT, DEC 20
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 48(1962)* 55(2010) 50(2010)*
BISHOP 38(2010) 48(1999) 42(1981)
NEEDLES 57(2010) 58(2010) 61(1901)
DAGGETT 50(1980)* 48(1980)* 52(1981)*
KINGMAN 46(2010)* 49(2010)* 51(2010)
DESERT ROCK 45(2024)* 50(2010) 45(2010)
DEATH VALLEY 58(1914) 56(1914)* 65(1999)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...WOODS
AVIATION...PLANZ
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