041
FXUS65 KVEF 182323
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
323 PM PST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WHERE
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND, DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
* CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AND SNOW IMPACTS AROUND CHRISTMASTIME
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING EXACT DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS NORTHERN AND WESTERN INYO
COUNTY, AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN ESMERALDA COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A 20
TO 40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A 10 TO 20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
GIVEN THE NEAR PERPENDICULAR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH RESPECT TO THE
SIERRA, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AS THE MOUNTAINS
INTERCEPT MOST OF THE MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN THE 0.01 TO 0.10 INCH RANGE
IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ESMERALDA COUNTY RANGES FROM 0.01 TO 0.25 INCHES
IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO HAS PRECIPITATION
TOTALS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS TO 0.75 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA CREST. WITH WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION, SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE BETWEEN 9,000 AND 10,000 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL
LIMIT NEW ACCUMULATION AND SNOW RELATED IMPACTS TO THE RIDGELINE.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION AROUND MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA
WHICH WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS WE APPROACH
CHRISTMAS DAY. BEYOND THE EXISTENCE OF THIS TROUGH AND THE
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE, DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO
INTERENSEMBLE DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INLAND AS WELL AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. CURRENTLY,
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY SHAPING UP TO
SEE THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER. MAKE SURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO TRAVEL THIS HOLIDAY SEASON AS THEY MAY
BE IMPACTED BY THE WEATHER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ELEVATE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST WIND FRIDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z, BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE TYPICAL SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 8KT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL, WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 20KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ELEVATED NORTH WINDS IN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING IN
THE OWENS VALLEY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND 10KT, LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY, BREEZY NORTH
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KBIH WITH WINDS TO AROUND 10KT LIKELY AND
GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FOLLOW
TYPICAL DAYTIME TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT,
AS BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE REGION, WITH BASES REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE 15KFT AGL.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX THU, DEC 18 FRI, DEC 19 SAT, DEC 20
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 72(1939)* 68(2024)* 73(1981)
BISHOP 72(1999)* 69(1985)* 71(1972)
NEEDLES 75(2024)* 76(2024)* 76(1981)*
DAGGETT 80(1998) 76(1950)* 78(1981)
KINGMAN 74(1980) 76(1917) 74(1917)
DESERT ROCK 69(2024)* 69(2024) 69(2020)
DEATH VALLEY 86(1998) 75(1950) 79(1999)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN THU, DEC 18 FRI, DEC 19 SAT, DEC 20
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 48(1962)* 55(2010) 50(2010)*
BISHOP 38(2010) 48(1999) 42(1981)
NEEDLES 57(2010) 58(2010) 61(1901)
DAGGETT 50(1980)* 48(1980)* 52(1981)*
KINGMAN 46(2010)* 49(2010) 51(2010)
DESERT ROCK 45(2024)* 50(2010) 45(2010)*
DEATH VALLEY 58(1914) 56(1914) 65(1999)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...STESSMAN
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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