930
FXUS65 KVEF 191723
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
923 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR.
* DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH
BREEZY AFTERNOONS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT.
* THE CHANCE OF RAIN, SNOW, AND WIND IMPACTS AROUND CHRISTMASTIME
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE PACNW TODAY WILL KICK UP
STRONG WINDS IN THE SIERRA, WITH A 75% CHANCE OF 60+ MPH GUSTS. AS A
RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR SIERRA ZONE FROM 7AM
THIS MORNING THROUGH 4AM SATURDAY. DOWN IN THE OWENS VALLEY, BREEZES
SHOULD BE MORE IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE, BUT A FEW GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT (25%). THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO
DIRECT A PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA SATURDAY -
MONDAY. THE MOUNTAIN RANGE WILL INTERCEPT THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION, WITH UP TO 1.50" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AT THE CREST.
HOWEVER, SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE 9-10 KFT THROUGHOUT THE
EVENT, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER IMPACTS IS LIMITED. IN THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY, THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF SEEING MORE THAN
0.10" OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAY
BELOW 10% THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT, WITH GUSTS 15-25 MPH LIKELY (70%) ALONG THE
I-15 AND I-40 CORRIDORS SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM AROUND
CHRISTMASTIME. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING IN
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND STICKING AROUND THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
FORECAST PWAT AND IVT VALUES ARE NEAR THE MAX OF DECEMBER
CLIMATOLOGY, SO MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE RECORD
DECEMBER PWAT VALUE IN VEGAS IS 1.00" SET IN EARLY DECEMBER 2014.
LOOKING BACK AT THAT DATE, VEGAS ONLY GOT 0.16" WHICH IS A NICE RAIN
BUT NOTHING CRAZY (NOT EVEN IN THE TOP 50 WETTEST DECEMBER DAYS).
THIS IS A NICE REMINDER THAT MOISTURE IS ONLY PART OF THE RAINFALL
EQUATION. FORCING (LIFTING MECHANISM) IS CRUCIAL AS WELL AND THE
STRENGTH, TRACK, AND TIMING OF THE FORCING WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. MOUNTAINS BENEFIT FROM THE EVER-PRESENT FORCING
THAT IS OROGRAPHIC LIFT, AND WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY FAIR WELL WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE FLUX. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
FOR OUR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS IS SNOW LEVEL. WITH DEEP MOISTURE OFTEN
COMES A DEEP LAYER OF WARM AIR. LOOKING BACK AT THE EARLY DECEMBER
2014 EVENT, MT. CHARLESTON (TOWN) RECEIVED NEARLY 2.00" OF RAIN AND
ZERO SNOW. THIS COULD VERY WELL BE THE SAME SCENARIO HERE, AS
FORECAST SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM 6.5-7.5KFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
TO 9-10KFT IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS. WE'RE STILL OVER 5 DAYS
OUT FROM THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SO THINGS CAN, AND WILL,
CHANGE. BUT THE KEY TAKEAWAYS SHOULD BE THAT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
GROWING MORE LIKELY AROUND THE HOLIDAY. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WET CONDITIONS ON MOST ROADS AND WINTRY
WEATHER ABOVE 7-8KFT.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT, FOLLOWING TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 8
KNOTS OR LESS. HOWEVER, A LOW CHANCE (20%) EXISTS FOR BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS THEY TRANSITION TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH PERIODS OF
MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 15KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL WIND PATTERNS, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY,
INCLUDING BIH, WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THIS AS BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. THESE ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY, THEY WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST THIS EVENING, REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, AS
BANDS OF MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE REGION, WITH BASES
REMAINING AOA 12KFT AGL.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX FRI, DEC 19 SAT, DEC 20 SUN, DEC 21
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 68(2024)* 73(1981) 68(2023)*
BISHOP 69(1985)* 71(1972) 70(2018)
NEEDLES 76(2024)* 76(1981)* 75(2005)*
DAGGETT 76(1950)* 78(1981) 76(2018)*
KINGMAN 76(1917) 74(1917) 73(1917)
DESERT ROCK 69(2024) 69(2020) 70(2020)
DEATH VALLEY 75(1950) 79(1999) 81(1999)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN FRI, DEC 19 SAT, DEC 20 SUN, DEC 21
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 55(2010) 50(2010)* 53(2023)*
BISHOP 48(1999) 42(1981) 40(2023)
NEEDLES 58(2010) 61(1901) 58(2010)
DAGGETT 48(1980)* 52(1981)* 53(1981)*
KINGMAN 49(2010)* 51(2010) 51(1904)
DESERT ROCK 50(2010) 45(2010)* 44(2010)*
DEATH VALLEY 56(1914) 65(1999) 60(1914)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...WOODS
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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