831
FXUS65 KVEF 040941
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
141 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SNOW WILL RETURN TO AREA MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO MAJOR IMPACTS IN THE SIERRA AND MINOR IMPACTS IN THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL BETWEEN TWO WAVES OF MOISTURE.
YESTERDAY'S WAVE IS NOW TRACKING EAST THROUGH ARIZONA, WHILE THE
NEXT ONE IS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SEVEN TO TEN INCHES
OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN OVER THE SIERRA OVER 9500 FEET IN ELEVATION SO
FAR. SNOWFALL WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH TODAY AS THE NEXT WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SIERRA THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN
IS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE TRAJECTORY FAVORS
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGE, PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OVER 5 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET AND MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, DECIDED TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. EMBEDDED ENERGY MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON SPATIAL
EXTENT AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS, PROBABLY BECAUSE THE LOW IS DIGGING
FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE
INCOMING TROUGH THAT WAS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AIR AND WIND
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALSO APPEARS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
BEFORE, LIKELY COMING ACROSS AS A SHALLOW OPEN WAVE. NONETHELESS, IT
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NO
IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH BASES GENERALLY REMAINING
AROUND 5KFT AGL LATE THIS EVENING. SOME LOWERING OF BASES IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HOW LOW THEY MAY FALL. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES BASES FALLING AS LOW
AS 500FT AGL; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN
THE VALLEY TODAY, THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY. I DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 11Z TO 15Z FOR CIGS OF 1KFT AGL, BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3KFT TO 4KFT AGL RANGE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD ONCE AGAIN LOWER CIGS
BELOW 3KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE OWENS VALLEY, MOST
AREAS WILL SEE BASES FALL INTO THE 3KFT TO 6KFT AGL RANGE OVERNIGHT;
HOWEVER, ISOLATED AREAS BELOW 2KFT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. IN THE OWENS VALLEY, BASES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOVE 10KFT
AGL, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE SIERRA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING INTO THE 3KFT TO 5KFT AGL RANGE ONCE AGAIN.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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