299
FXUS65 KVEF 041750
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SNOW WILL RETURN TO AREA MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
TO MAJOR IMPACTS IN THE SIERRA AND MINOR IMPACTS IN THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL BETWEEN TWO WAVES OF MOISTURE.
YESTERDAY'S WAVE IS NOW TRACKING EAST THROUGH ARIZONA, WHILE THE
NEXT ONE IS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SEVEN TO TEN INCHES
OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN OVER THE SIERRA OVER 9500 FEET IN ELEVATION SO
FAR. SNOWFALL WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH TODAY AS THE NEXT WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SIERRA THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN
IS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE TRAJECTORY FAVORS
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGE, PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF OVER 5 INCHES OF
SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET AND MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, DECIDED TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE
LIGHT.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. EMBEDDED ENERGY MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON SPATIAL
EXTENT AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS, PROBABLY BECAUSE THE LOW IS DIGGING
FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE
INCOMING TROUGH THAT WAS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AIR AND WIND
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALSO APPEARS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
BEFORE, LIKELY COMING ACROSS AS A SHALLOW OPEN WAVE. NONETHELESS, IT
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL END THIS
EVENING BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN LIGHT AND 10KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SLIGHTLY LIGHTER THAN TODAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 6000-8000FT
WILL INCREASE TO BKN AFTER 00Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING CIGS UNDER 8000FT, POTENTIALLY EVEN DOWN TO
4000FT IF RAIN CAN MAKE IT TO THE TERMINALS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THE TERMINALS HAVE SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH PROB30 NOW FOCUSING TO 05Z-10Z TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST MONDAY MORNING- WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OR AROUND THE VALLEY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ANY
ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG SHOULD END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 15-25KT EXPECTED. KBIH WILL SEE GUSTS BUT
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, SPREADING INTO THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
TONIGHT. CIGS TO 3000-5000FT, BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 6SM,
AND LIGHT RAIN THEN SNOW ABOVE 7000FT IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS TO AROUND
8000FT, THOUGH LOW STRATUS OR FIG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT (WHICH SHOULD BE LESS AREAS THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS).
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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