265
FXUS65 KVEF 042111
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
111 PM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* IMPACTFUL SNOW ANTICIPATED IN THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS, LIGHT
RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE NEXT PLUME OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA, AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THE BIG WINNER IN OUR CWA WILL BE THE EASTERN SIERRA
WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4AM. FARTHER
EAST, THE COVERAGE/DURATION OF PRECIPITATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR
LOCATIONS UNDER 7000 FEET, PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AND NOT THAT IMPACTFUL GIVEN THE LIGHT INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY PLAYS A LARGER ROLE IN THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH QPF AMOUNTS, TRENDING UPWARD LAST
NIGHT AND THEN BACK DOWN WITH THE LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE. ULTIMATELY,
IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS 1-5" IN KYLE AND LEE
CANYONS (7-9KFT), THOUGH THERE IS A 25% CHANCE 6"+ IN UPPER LEE
CANYON. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT WHILE THESE AMOUNTS MAY SEEM RATHER
MINOR, THERE IS OVER A 50% CHANCE OF 1-1.5"/HOUR RATES WHICH WILL
YIELD DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS IN A HURRY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 4AM MONDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TODAY AND TOMORROW,
WITH POPS DROPPING BELOW 20% ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THURSDAY, PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN NV AND
NORTHWESTERN AZ WHERE POPS ARE 10-30%. ANY PRECIPITATION BEYOND
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND NOT IMPACTFUL. IN ADDITION TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WE'LL BE DEALING WITH PERIODS OF INCREASED
WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTS OF 40+ MPH
ARE LOW (25% OR LESS), BUT STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM. LATEST NBM
GIVES WIDESPREAD 20-40% CHANCES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS, BUT THESE
PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN US RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD
FOSTER WARMER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL END THIS
EVENING BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN LIGHT AND 10KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SLIGHTLY LIGHTER THAN TODAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 6000-8000FT
WILL INCREASE TO BKN AFTER 00Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING CIGS UNDER 8000FT, POTENTIALLY EVEN DOWN TO
4000FT IF RAIN CAN MAKE IT TO THE TERMINALS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THE TERMINALS HAVE SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH PROB30 NOW FOCUSING TO 05Z-10Z TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT TO
THE EAST MONDAY MORNING- WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OR AROUND THE VALLEY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ANY
ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG SHOULD END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 15-25KT EXPECTED. KBIH WILL SEE GUSTS BUT
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, SPREADING INTO THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
TONIGHT. CIGS TO 3000-5000FT, BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 6SM,
AND LIGHT RAIN THEN SNOW ABOVE 7000FT IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS TO AROUND
8000FT, THOUGH LOW STRATUS OR FIG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT (WHICH SHOULD BE LESS AREAS THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS).
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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