084
FXUS65 KVEF 042335
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
334 PM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* IMPACTFUL SNOW ANTICIPATED IN THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS, LIGHT
RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE NEXT PLUME OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA, AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THE BIG WINNER IN OUR CWA WILL BE THE EASTERN SIERRA
WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4AM. FARTHER
EAST, THE COVERAGE/DURATION OF PRECIPITATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR
LOCATIONS UNDER 7000 FEET, PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AND NOT THAT IMPACTFUL GIVEN THE LIGHT INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY PLAYS A LARGER ROLE IN THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH QPF AMOUNTS, TRENDING UPWARD LAST
NIGHT AND THEN BACK DOWN WITH THE LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE. ULTIMATELY,
IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS 1-5" IN KYLE AND LEE
CANYONS (7-9KFT), THOUGH THERE IS A 25% CHANCE 6"+ IN UPPER LEE
CANYON. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT WHILE THESE AMOUNTS MAY SEEM RATHER
MINOR, THERE IS OVER A 50% CHANCE OF 1-1.5"/HOUR RATES WHICH WILL
YIELD DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS IN A HURRY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 4AM MONDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TODAY AND TOMORROW,
WITH POPS DROPPING BELOW 20% ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THURSDAY, PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN NV AND
NORTHWESTERN AZ WHERE POPS ARE 10-30%. ANY PRECIPITATION BEYOND
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND NOT IMPACTFUL. IN ADDITION TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WE'LL BE DEALING WITH PERIODS OF INCREASED
WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTS OF 40+ MPH
ARE LOW (25% OR LESS), BUT STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM. LATEST NBM
GIVES WIDESPREAD 20-40% CHANCES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS, BUT THESE
PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN US RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD
FOSTER WARMER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
OCCASIONAL GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING. A SUBSET OF
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT, BUT GIVEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING, I HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LOWER END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THAT SAID, GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF DIRECT IMPACTS
BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 5KFT AGL OR
HIGHER, BUT BASES COULD FALL TO AROUND 4KFT AGL IF A SHOWER MOVES
OVER THE FIELD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BREEZY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SPEEDS
FALL TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION AREAS, CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT AGL; HOWEVER, CIGS MAY FALL TO BETWEEN
3KFT AND 5KFT AGL IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. CIGS IN MOST AREAS WILL
INCREASE TO 8KFT AGL OR HIGHER MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS
OR FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...PLANZ
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