704
FXUS65 KVEF 050532
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
931 PM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* IMPACTFUL SNOW ANTICIPATED IN THE SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS, LIGHT
RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE NEXT PLUME OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA, AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THE BIG WINNER IN OUR CWA WILL BE THE EASTERN SIERRA
WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4AM. FARTHER
EAST, THE COVERAGE/DURATION OF PRECIPITATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR
LOCATIONS UNDER 7000 FEET, PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AND NOT THAT IMPACTFUL GIVEN THE LIGHT INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THE
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY PLAYS A LARGER ROLE IN THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH QPF AMOUNTS, TRENDING UPWARD LAST
NIGHT AND THEN BACK DOWN WITH THE LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE. ULTIMATELY,
IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS 1-5" IN KYLE AND LEE
CANYONS (7-9KFT), THOUGH THERE IS A 25% CHANCE 6"+ IN UPPER LEE
CANYON. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT WHILE THESE AMOUNTS MAY SEEM RATHER
MINOR, THERE IS OVER A 50% CHANCE OF 1-1.5"/HOUR RATES WHICH WILL
YIELD DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS IN A HURRY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 4AM MONDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE WORK WEEK. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TODAY AND TOMORROW,
WITH POPS DROPPING BELOW 20% ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHOT
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THURSDAY, PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHERN NV AND
NORTHWESTERN AZ WHERE POPS ARE 10-30%. ANY PRECIPITATION BEYOND
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND NOT IMPACTFUL. IN ADDITION TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WE'LL BE DEALING WITH PERIODS OF INCREASED
WINDS. THROUGH MID-WEEK, CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTS OF 40+ MPH
ARE LOW (25% OR LESS), BUT STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM. LATEST NBM
GIVES WIDESPREAD 20-40% CHANCES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS, BUT THESE
PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN US RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD
FOSTER WARMER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 07Z, MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FIELD. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE SHOWERS
MOVED IN, AND WHILE SOME GUIDANCE STILL HINTS AT WINDS AS HIGH AS 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT, I HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP WINDS ON THE LOWER END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS.
SOUTHERLY GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 6KFT AGL
OR HIGHER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT, THEN IMPROVE TO 10KFT AGL OR
GREATER ON MONDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW 10 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS AND SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
SHOWERS, CIGS OF 5KFT TO 8KFT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT WILL IMPROVE
TO 10KFT AGL OR HIGHER BY LATE MORNING. ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...PLANZ
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