086
FXUS65 KVEF 062318
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
318 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* A MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCE BRINGS LOW ELEVATION RAIN, MOUNTAIN
SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING INTO
NEXT WEEK AS QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, WILL
TRACK SOUTH THEN EAST ALONG THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THE POSITION OF THE LOW IS TOO FAR SOUTH FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY, ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGH TERRAIN. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES IN
THESE AREAS ARE IN THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
AS THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST, DRAGGING
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. THE INLAND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE
MEANS PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 5000 FEET, BUT GIVEN THE LACK
OF MOISTURE, SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE JUST A FEW INCHES AND LIMITED TO
THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA. ALSO OF INTEREST IS AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. THE NBM
CURRENTLY HAS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN
THESE AREAS. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND
INTENSITY BEFORE DECIDING ON WHETHER A WIND HEADLINE WOULD BE
NECESSARY.
COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. LOWS
ON SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE THE COLDEST SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON,
INCLUDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE LAS VEGAS AREA.
AFTERWARDS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AS WELL, INITIALLY DUE TO A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND LATER DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN LAUGHLIN AND
NEEDLES, INCLUDING A 65 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH
ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 8KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
THEN SWITCHING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 8-10KT WEDNESDAY
EVENING, BUT MOST LIKELY WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 8KT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000-8000FT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. FEW-SCT CLOUDS
BETWEEN 5000-8000FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS, POTENTIALLY BECOMING BKN AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR CIGS AT 5000-8000FT IF
THIS PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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