156
FXUS65 KVEF 070831
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1231 AM PST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* A MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCE BRINGS LOW ELEVATION RAIN, MOUNTAIN
SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING INTO
NEXT WEEK AS QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING, AND WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAJA LATER TODAY. OVERALL, THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR REGIONAL WEATHER, THOUGH A
FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
MOJAVE DESERT NEAR LAKE HAVASU AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL DRAG A
SHARP COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWER CHANCES IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. UNLIKE STORM SYSTEMS OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THIS ONE WILL
FEATURE MORE CONTINENTAL ORIGINS AND BE MUCH COOLER, WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4000-5000 FEET. THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT SNOW TOTALS, BUT A QUICK 1-3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES PRESENT
SOME GRAUPEL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER SHOWER CORES EVEN DOWN
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, SOME VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA AS THE FRONT REACHES
THE GREATER INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 45 - 55 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A BROAD WIND ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AFTER DARK ON THURSDAY
EVENING BUT WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE COOL AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION, CRISP MORNINGS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR DEPENDING ON IF THE WINDS RELAX ENOUGH TO
OPTIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS MODERATING HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 8KT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS, FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHTS THEN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 8-10KT WEDNESDAY
EVENING, BUT MOST LIKELY WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 8KT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5000-8000FT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. FEW-SCT CLOUDS
BETWEEN 5000-8000FT WILL POTENTIALLY BECOMING BKN AT TIMES ON
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AROUND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTER 18Z, WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE RISK FOR CIGS AT 5000-8000FT IF THIS PRECIPITATION DOES
DEVELOP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z AND CIGS
SHOULD LIFT IF THEY DROP IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...OUTLER
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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