309
FXUS65 KVEF 232004
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1204 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED MINOR
IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
* A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE MORNING SHOWED A CLOSE LOW SPINNING OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SO OUR SOUTH, AND THEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA TO OUR NORTH. BEING SANDWICHED
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING SCATTERED OUT TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE RADAR SHOWING WEAK RETURNS IN LINCOLN COUNTY,
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS VERIFIED THE LOW LEVELS WERE TOO DRY AND NO RAIN
WAS REACHING THE GROUND. THIS TREND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THEY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD. ON SATURDAY, STRONG FORCING AS THE TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS INTERACT ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE RETURNS IN MOHAVE COUNTY
AND FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES, BUT
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. ONCE THE TWO SYSTEMS PHASE
AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, IT WILL BE DRY SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
AS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL NEVADA DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA, NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE. WIDESPREAD NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 20-30 MPH IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. ISOLATED MINOR WIND IMPACTS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH SHOW
POCKETS OF HIGHER CHANCES (80%) IN PORTIONS OF DEATH VALLEY AS WELL
AS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY. GIVEN T HE ISOLATED NATURE AND THE
MARGINAL GUSTS (NOT OVERLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH), WONT BE ISSUING ANY
WIND PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. BOATERS ON LAKE MOHAVE SHOULD BE AWARE
OF THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY,
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PAST THE REGION AND WINDS WILL THUS BE LOWER.
NON-IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE FORECAST AFTER
SATURDAY.
WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY THEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. SUNDAY WILL SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RIDGE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEMS, THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 8KT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME DIRECTIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY, NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTS OVER 15KT ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE, INCREASING TO AROUND 20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN OR AROUND THE
TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY OR
REMAIN AS VIRGA. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO UNDER 10KFT FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAISE BACK OVER 10FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NV AND
NORTHWESTERN AZ THIS THIS EVENING, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AS
VIRGA TODAY. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA, WITH HE BEST CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN AND CIGS TO 7000FT BEING IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. ON SATURDAY, BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 15-25KT
AND ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS TO 30KT IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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