482
FXUS65 KVEF 061012
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
212 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
PEAKING TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND PEAKING
ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
* RIDGING RETURNS TO THE REGION SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 HPA RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A DEEPENING TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S FRONT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY FROM BULLHEAD CITY TO LAKE HAVASU CITY, WHERE CHANNELING
DUE TO TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WINDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A POSITIVE TILT AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF ON
SATURDAY, RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL YIELD AN UPTICK IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
SATURDAY, AND GIVEN AN ACCOMPANYING 500 HPA JET, SATURDAY WILL BE
THE WINDIEST DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN,
WHEN GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP EARLIER AND LINGER LATER INTO THE EVENING THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT AREAWIDE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, WITH LINGERING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH AT A SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED MAGNITUDE AS THE
LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA,
WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS RIDGING WILL DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERNS NEXT
WEEK ONWARD, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
CLUSTER ANALYSES INDICATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RIDGING AS WE
HEAD FURTHER INTO MARCH. INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL YIELD A QUICK
WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE MID-70S
AND 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDWEEK, AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MINOR HEATRISK GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF WINDOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10 TO 20
PERCENT) FOR RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD, PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS AT 20-25KT WILL INCREASE UP TO 30KT AFTER
SUNRISE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 21Z-23Z, NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS GUSTS AT 25-30KT CONTINUE. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY DROP THIS EVENING STARTING AT 03Z AS GUSTS END AND
SPEEDS DROP TO 8-10KT, BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AROUND 08Z
WINDS TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
RETURNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE. MOSTLY CLEAR VFR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTH WINDS AT 10-15KT
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THE REST OF THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT AT TIMES. GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD NORTH TO NORTHEAST GUSTS OF 25-35KT CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL DROP BACK
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10KT
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
OVER 20KFT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES BUT IN GENERAL- MOSTLY CLEAR,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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