852
FXUS65 KVEF 061750
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
PEAKING TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND PEAKING
ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
* RIDGING RETURNS TO THE REGION SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 HPA RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A DEEPENING TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S FRONT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY FROM BULLHEAD CITY TO LAKE HAVASU CITY, WHERE CHANNELING
DUE TO TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WINDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A POSITIVE TILT AND EVENTUALLY CUT OFF ON
SATURDAY, RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL YIELD AN UPTICK IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
SATURDAY, AND GIVEN AN ACCOMPANYING 500 HPA JET, SATURDAY WILL BE
THE WINDIEST DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE GREAT BASIN,
WHEN GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP EARLIER AND LINGER LATER INTO THE EVENING THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT AREAWIDE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, WITH LINGERING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH AT A SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED MAGNITUDE AS THE
LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA,
WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS RIDGING WILL DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERNS NEXT
WEEK ONWARD, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
CLUSTER ANALYSES INDICATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RIDGING AS WE
HEAD FURTHER INTO MARCH. INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL YIELD A QUICK
WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE MID-70S
AND 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDWEEK, AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MINOR HEATRISK GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ASIDE FROM A
BRIEF WINDOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10 TO 20
PERCENT) FOR RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD, PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD START TO TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
IN THE AFTERNOON, DIRECTIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 010 AND 030. WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WIND
SPEEDS REACHING ABOVE 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING. BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN, STRENGTHENING AND
TAKING A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATER IN THE MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 10KFT SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, GENERALLY
REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS
RETURN TOMORROW MORNING, INCLUDING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS IN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE
10KFT SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...MELTZER
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