780
FXUS65 KVEF 071000
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
200 AM PST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND MOJAVE
DESERT.
* RIDGING RETURNS TO THE REGION SUNDAY ONWARD, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LAST FEW WINDY DAYS HAS
DEVELOPED AN INCREASINGLY POSITIVE TILT THIS MORNING, PHASING
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WEST OF BAJA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS
FEATURE WILL DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF LOW AND MEANDER SOUTHWESTWARD
OFF OF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST, AND AS THIS EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE,
WE'LL SEE ONE LAST ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A LINGERING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL AS A 500 HPA JET ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE
WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE TERRAIN-INFLUENCED CHANNELING WILL
PRODUCE STRONGER GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AREAWIDE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL
NYE COUNTIES, WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED DIMINISHING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS TO THE NORTH. WHILE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, LINGERING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH AT A SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASED MAGNITUDE AS THE
LOW CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WILL DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER
PATTERNS NEXT WEEK ONWARD, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND CLUSTER ANALYSES INDICATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RIDGING AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO MARCH. INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL
YIELD A QUICK WARMING TREND, WITH TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO RETURN
TO THE MID-70S AND 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY MIDWEEK, AROUND 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A LEVEL 1 (MINOR) HEATRISK
GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF
WINDOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10 TO 20
PERCENT) FOR RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD, PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM THIS, THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARD EARLY-
SEASON HEAT, WITH A 50% PROBABILITY THAT LAS VEGAS REACHES 90
DEGREES BY NEXT FRIDAY, OVER A MONTH AHEAD OF SCHEDULE (THE
AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY IS APRIL 15TH). SO STAY TUNED, AND IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT WEEK, PLAN AHEAD TO ENSURE YOU STAY
AS COOL AND HYDRATED AS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE, NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 25-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..
THERE IS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 30KT BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND DIMINISH TO 8-10KT
AROUND SUNSET, CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10-
20KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AT 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25-35KT RETURN LATER THIS
MORNING, INCLUDING GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 35KT IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 8-10KT THIS EVENING
EXCEPT IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTS AT 20-25KT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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