233
FXUS65 KVEF 080959
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
159 AM PST SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WINDS PERSIST TODAY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY,
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ON LAKES MOHAVE AND
HAVASU. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER ON MONDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-40 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST TUESDAY
ONWARD, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS AS THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE HAS DEVELOPED INTO A
CLOSED LOW AND MEANDERED OFF OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
IN RESPONSE, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED, WITH
WINDS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION WILL BE THROUGH THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE TERRAIN-INDUCED CHANNELING WILL
MAINTAIN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RESULTING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO
3 FEET ON LAKE MOHAVE AND LAKE HAVASU. THE GREATEST ENHANCEMENT TO
THE WINDS IS EXPECTED NEAR LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY, WHERE GUSTS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH 40-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY, THOUGH
ON MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA, AND A MODEST UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION (10-20%) TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40 MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SPARSE,
CAMS INDICATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG, WHICH
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND RELATED IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS STILL WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCOMING
EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK AND BEYOND. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING TO 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS A 50% PROBABILITY FOR
LAS VEGAS TO REACH 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY, MARCH 13TH, WHICH WOULD
TIE THE RECORD FOR THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 90 DEGREES IN A
CALENDAR YEAR. THIS PROBABILITY FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE
WEEKEND, REACHING UPWARDS OF 60-70% BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EARLY
SEASON HEAT CAN BE DANGEROUS, GIVEN MANY ARE NOT YET ACCLIMATED TO
THE HOT TEMPERATURES. SO, THOSE WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS LATE NEXT
WEEK ONWARD SHOULD KEEP ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AND PLAN AHEAD TO
ENSURE COOL SHELTER AND ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
HAVE WEAKENED AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE (25% CHANCE), BUT
WINDS WILL LARGELY BE BELOW 10 KNOTS AND FOLLOW TYPICAL, DAILY
PATTERNS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT BREEZES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE
NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY (80%), PARTICULARLY FROM
KIFP TO KEED. WINDS HERE WILL WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...WOODS
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