597
FXUS65 KVEF 091138
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
438 AM PDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.
* A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ENSUES THIS WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. GUIDANCE HAS THIS LOW DRIFTING ENE TODAY, JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A ~20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES, MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-40. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO (10%
CHANCE). GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE (20%) NEAR
ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND AS RIDGING BUILDS. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY, WE'RE LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 90S. FORECAST VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND
ARE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
HEATRISK (MODERATE IN DEATH VALLEY). LOOKING AT LAS VEGAS
SPECIFICALLY, LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A 25-50% CHANCE OF REACHING
90 ON FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD TIE THE EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF 90 ON
RECORD. CHANCES FOR 90+ JUMP TO OVER 75% ON SATURDAY. LOOKING AHEAD
TO NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD. IN OTHER WORDS, THE WARMING TREND SHOWS NO SIGN
OF STOPPING THROUGH MID-MARCH. DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS ARE LIKELY
TO BE CHALLENGED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY VEERING
AND SETTLING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 10-12KT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND SUNSET, WITH
INTERMITTENT HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 18KT EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
DURING LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER 20KT, SHOULD THEY OCCUR. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS AGAIN DROP
UNDER 8KT AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
PASSING BANDS OF MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT LATE
THIS MORNING ONWARD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15KT WITH
INTERMITTENT HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AFTER SUNSET, GUSTS DIMINISH WITH
WINDS DROPPING UNDER 10KT AND SETTLING OUT OF MORE TYPICAL
DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN OWENS
VALLEY/KBIH WHERE UP-VALLEY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE PREVAIL, WITH BANDS OF MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH BASES ABOVE
10KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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