597
FXUS65 KVEF 262146
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 PM PDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOMALOUS, EARLY-SEASON HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
* A PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCE BY THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
BASED ON THIS MORNING'S 12Z SOUNDING AT LAS, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
COOLED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THUS, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EVEN WITH THIS "COOL DOWN", TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND EVERY CLIMATE SITE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEARLY THE SAME AS TODAY
EACH DAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON RECORDS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW, EXPECT
GUSTS 15-25 MPH EACH DAY BUT IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
WE START TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK AS A WEST COAST TROUGH
KNOCKS DOWN THE "HEAT DOME" RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVERHEAD FOR THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. CLUSTERS ALL SHOW THIS GENERAL IDEA OF TROUGHING
REPLACING RIDGING, HOWEVER THEY VARY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE, HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A COOLING TREND
WILL OCCUR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, WHICH MAY
FEEL MUCH COOLER AS THIS WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO COOLER, WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM. PROBABILITIES OVER 50% FOR WIND GUSTS OVER
40 MPH EXIST AT TIMES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SET UP IT'S HARD TO PIN POINT EXACT IMPACTS AND
TIMING. FINALLY, WE WILL ALSO SEE A MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY DIFFERENT IDEAS OF HOW AN IVT PLUME
WILL SET UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE
IN WHERE/IF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK-
STAY TUNED!
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT,
MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
AFTER 03Z WITH SPEEDS AROUND 7 KNOTS. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
BETWEEN 05-07Z THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THESE WINDS. IF THESE WINDS DO DEVELOP,
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 13 KNOTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
IN MOST AREAS INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 12 KNOTS OR
LESS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY A FEW SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA EXPECTED TODAY.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX THU, MAR 26 FRI, MAR 27 SAT, MAR 28 SUN, MAR 29
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD (YR) RECORD (YR)
LAS VEGAS 93(2022)* 88(2022)* 91(2015)* 89(2015)*
BISHOP 82(2025)* 85(2015)* 85(2015)* 84(2015)*
NEEDLES 98(2025)* 94(2015)* 97(2015)* 95(2015)*
DAGGETT 92(2022)* 90(2015)* 92(2015)* 91(2015)*
KINGMAN 87(2025)* 83(2022)* 85(2015)* 86(1934)*
DESERT ROCK 87(2022)* 84(1986)* 85(2015)* 85(2015)*
DEATH VALLEY 104(2022)* 100(1988)* 99(2015)* 102(2015)*
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN THU, MAR 26 FRI, MAR 27 SAT, MAR 28 SUN, MAR 29
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD (YR) RECORD (YR)
LAS VEGAS 65(1971)* 66(2025)* 62(2015)* 62(2015)*
BISHOP 45(2022)* 47(2001) 47(2001) 50(2001)
NEEDLES 69(2025) 65(2025)* 66(2025)* 66(1986)*
DAGGETT 61(1984)* 63(2013)* 58(2015)* 60(2001)*
KINGMAN 54(1972)* 57(2025)* 55(1929)* 51(1964)*
DESERT ROCK 58(2022)* 58(2022)* 56(2024)* 58(1986)*
DEATH VALLEY 73(1971)* 78(2022) 71(2025)* 71(1943)*
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...GORELOW
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