185
FXUS65 KVEF 310758
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1258 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK, WITH PATCHY
BLOWING DUST AND DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
* LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
* WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS MAKES ITS APPROACH TODAY, BRINGING
INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE I-
15 CORRIDOR, SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY, AND THE DESERT ROCK AREA. HERE,
GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE LIKELY (70%). CONTINUING TO MONITOR DOWNSLOPE
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY AND IN THE LEE OF THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS. LATEST HI-RES MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE WESTERN LV VALLEY
DEPICT A STABLE LAYER NEAR RIDGETOP ALONG WITH A REVERSE WIND SHEAR
PROFILE, SUGGESTING THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS.
HREF PROBABILITIES SEEM TO AGREE WITH THIS, GIVING A ~20% CHANCE
OF 60 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE BARSTOW AREA, WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER IN THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF
NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS LINGER IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP IN THE SIERRA LATE THIS
MORNING, SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT, WITH A ~80% CHANCE OF UNDER
0.10". HOWEVER, THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA HAVE 50-80% CHANCES OF SEEING 0.10-
0.50". WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 8500+ FEET, THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER IMPACTS IS QUITE LIMITED. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH ONLY LOW POPS (20% OR
LESS) IN FAR NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY AS THE SECOND SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT ON FRIDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INSISTS ON A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
FAVOR THE RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING WINDS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...ELEVATED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS GUSTS 20-25KT CONTINUE. WINDS MAY TURN MORE WESTERLY
BETWEEN 07Z-12Z, IF THEY DON'T THEN THE WILL REMAIN MORE SOUTH
GUSTING TO 20KT AT TIMES. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTS OVER 30KT ARE LIKELY (70% CHANCE) BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 35KT, MAINLY AFTER 21Z.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET BUT SOUTHERLY GUSTS OVER
20KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT WINDS WILL STOP GUSTING AND MAY EVEN BECOME LIGHT BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. MOST LIKELY, IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ANY RAIN REMAINING IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF RAIN WERE TO MAKE IT
NEAR THE TERMINALS, IT WOULD BE AROUND 12Z. CIGS TO 8000FT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY RAIN. OTHERWISE, BKN TO OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, LOWERING TO 12KFT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS SPEEDS DROP TO AROUND 10KT. ON TUESDAY, GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-35KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40KT
ARE POSSIBLE. THE OWENS VALLEY AND KBIH MAY NOT SEE THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTS UNTIL AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL DROP BACK AFTER SUNSET
BUT REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AS
GUSTS 20-30KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, MAINLY FAVORING THE TERRAIN UNTIL
SPILLING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT. CIGS TO 7000FT
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY RAIN, AND VIRGA MAY RESULT IN SUDDEN ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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