838
FXUS65 KVEF 311157
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
457 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK, WITH PATCHY
BLOWING DUST AND DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
* LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
* WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS MAKES ITS APPROACH TODAY, BRINGING
INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE I-
15 CORRIDOR, SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY, AND THE DESERT ROCK AREA. HERE,
GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE LIKELY (70%). CONTINUING TO MONITOR DOWNSLOPE
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY AND IN THE LEE OF THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS. LATEST HI-RES MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE WESTERN LV VALLEY
DEPICT A STABLE LAYER NEAR RIDGETOP ALONG WITH A REVERSE WIND SHEAR
PROFILE, SUGGESTING THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS.
HREF PROBABILITIES SEEM TO AGREE WITH THIS, GIVING A ~20% CHANCE
OF 60 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE BARSTOW AREA, WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER IN THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF
NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS LINGER IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP IN THE SIERRA LATE THIS
MORNING, SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT, WITH A ~80% CHANCE OF UNDER
0.10". HOWEVER, THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA HAVE 50-80% CHANCES OF SEEING 0.10-
0.50". WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 8500+ FEET, THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER IMPACTS IS QUITE LIMITED. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH ONLY LOW POPS (20% OR
LESS) IN FAR NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY AS THE SECOND SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT ON FRIDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INSISTS ON A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
FAVOR THE RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING WINDS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 12Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE RELATIVE LULL EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS RAMP UP LATE MORNING, WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35KT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING. GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND DAYBREAK. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SCT-BKN CEILINGS BETWEEN 15-20KFT THIS
MORNING DROPPING TO 8-10KFT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
TERRAIN OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED, AND WHILE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR VIRGA AND ASSOCIATED ERRATIC
WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE VALLEY, WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND LOCATION.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY AROUND
5-15KT, AND WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 25-35KT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE KBIH, WHERE WINDS MAINTAIN MORE OF A WESTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT, WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT EXPECTED
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WILL
RESULT IN TERRAIN OBSCURATION, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, INCLUDING THE EASTERN SIERRA, SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS COULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, WITH SCT-BKN CEILINGS
15-20KFT THIS MORNING DROPPING TO 8-12KFT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page