643
FXUS65 KVEF 311813 RRA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1113 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK, WITH PATCHY
BLOWING DUST AND DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
* LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
* WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS MAKES ITS APPROACH TODAY, BRINGING
INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE I-
15 CORRIDOR, SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY, AND THE DESERT ROCK AREA. HERE,
GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE LIKELY (70%). CONTINUING TO MONITOR DOWNSLOPE
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN OWENS VALLEY AND IN THE LEE OF THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS. LATEST HI-RES MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE WESTERN LV VALLEY
DEPICT A STABLE LAYER NEAR RIDGETOP ALONG WITH A REVERSE WIND SHEAR
PROFILE, SUGGESTING THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS.
HREF PROBABILITIES SEEM TO AGREE WITH THIS, GIVING A ~20% CHANCE
OF 60 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE BARSTOW AREA, WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SECOND SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER IN THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF
NORTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS LINGER IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP IN THE SIERRA LATE THIS
MORNING, SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT, WITH A ~80% CHANCE OF UNDER
0.10". HOWEVER, THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA HAVE 50-80% CHANCES OF SEEING 0.10-
0.50". WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 8500+ FEET, THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER IMPACTS IS QUITE LIMITED. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH ONLY LOW POPS (20% OR
LESS) IN FAR NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY AS THE SECOND SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT ON FRIDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INSISTS ON A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO
FAVOR THE RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WEAKENING WINDS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND DAYBREAK. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
TODAY. SCT TO BKN SKIES WITH CIGS 15 TO 20KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES 8 TO 10KFT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY WHERE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF VIRGA AND ASSOCIATED ERRATIC
WINDS IN THE VALLEY FROM 00Z TO 10Z, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT AND KDAG, WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT
RANGE. CLOUDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN TERRAIN OBSCURATION, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, INCLUDING THE
EASTERN SIERRA, SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA. SHOWERS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, ALONG
WITH SCT TO BKN CIGS 15 TO 20KFT AGL LATE THIS MORNING, LOWERING TO
8 TO 12KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS WILL PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...PLANZ
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