970
FXUS65 KVEF 050517
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1017 PM PDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY.
* WARMER AND CALMER CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE A SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY MID/LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG TODAY, ESPECIALLY
LOOKING AT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ELY AND NEEDLES. THIS GRADIENT IS
DRIVING THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY,
WITH GUSTS REMAINING 20-40 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING,
BRINGING AN END TO ANY IMPACTS. MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON THE LOCAL LAKES.
ONCE THE WINDS SUBSIDE, IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
WARMING AND MORE SETTLED WEATHER. THE WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND
LASTS THROUGH TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH ~10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BREEZES REMAIN LIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS LARGELY PREVAIL. THE
ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS (~20%) DURING THIS TIME ARE CONFINED TO
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SNEAKS
UNDER THE RIDGE. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE AZ
STRIP. BY MID/LATE WEEK, FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS WE WAIT
FOR GUIDANCE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE INTERACTION OF TWO
SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING OVER THE NE PACIFIC
WHILE THE OTHER IS A MODELED SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WESTERN CANADA. THE KEY TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WHETHER
THESE SYSTEMS CAN PHASE OR NOT. IF THEY ARE ABLE TO PHASE, THE
COMBINED SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. IF UNABLE,
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE
CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE CA COAST BY THE WEEKEND. THE FORMER
SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR STRONGER WINDS AND PROBABLY KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THE LATTER SHOULD FAVOR LIGHTER WINDS AND BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE. BOTH SCENARIOS FAVOR A COOLDOWN,
THOUGH TIMING VARIES BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS REDEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER
THAN TODAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST TO 12 OR 15 KTS. FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SCT TO BKN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE... WINDS ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BELOW 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES,
WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...SOULAT
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