971
FXUS65 KVEF 051956
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1256 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LARGELY DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY ON MONDAY.
* OUR NEXT NOTABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LARGELY HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ~5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, WITH A MORE GRADUAL WARMING ANTICIPATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THE PEAK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ~10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10%
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THIS IS
THANKS TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE AND
INTERACT WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ACROSS AZ. EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WHERE POPS ARE 25-50%.
LATE IN THE WEEK, A MORE NOTABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF A
CUTOFF LOW. AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY, THE KEY TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WOULD PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA. MODELS NOW SUGGEST PHASING IS UNLIKELY, RESULTING IN
A LATER ARRIVAL TIME IN OUR REGION. GIVEN HOW THESE CUTOFF LOWS LIKE
TO TAKE THEIR TIME, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SLOWING TREND.
THAT SAID, LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
MINOR WIND IMPACTS MAY BEGIN ON THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY, THE
CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA, ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW CAN POSITION ITSELF NEAR SAN DIEGO
AND/OR MOVE OVERHEAD. LATEST NBM PAINTS A SMATTERING OF 20-50%
POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
TRACK SHOWN IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AT 040-060 DEGREES TRUE ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SPEEDS UP TO 8KT IS THROUGH 21Z,
AFTER THAT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 8KT. LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING
PATTERNS RE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH EAST WINDS UNDER 8KT
SETTING UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD, DECREASING FROM 20KFT THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12KFT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...A FEW MORE HOURS OF
ELEVATED NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE LIGHTER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOP AROUND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS AT KIFP WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF BY THIS TIME AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS FOLLOW TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 10KFT-
15KFT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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