962
FXUS65 KVEF 052157
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
256 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LARGELY DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY ON MONDAY.
* OUR NEXT NOTABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LARGELY HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ~5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, WITH A MORE GRADUAL WARMING ANTICIPATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THE PEAK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ~10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10%
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THIS IS
THANKS TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE AND
INTERACT WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ACROSS AZ. EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WHERE POPS ARE 25-50%.
LATE IN THE WEEK, A MORE NOTABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF A
CUTOFF LOW. AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY, THE KEY TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WOULD PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA. MODELS NOW SUGGEST PHASING IS UNLIKELY, RESULTING IN
A LATER ARRIVAL TIME IN OUR REGION. GIVEN HOW THESE CUTOFF LOWS LIKE
TO TAKE THEIR TIME, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SLOWING TREND.
THAT SAID, LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
MINOR WIND IMPACTS MAY BEGIN ON THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY, THE
CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA, ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW CAN POSITION ITSELF NEAR SAN DIEGO
AND/OR MOVE OVERHEAD. LATEST NBM PAINTS A SMATTERING OF 20-50%
POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
TRACK SHOWN IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS
FOLLOWING PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH EAST WINDS
UNDER 8KT SETTING UP MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE FOR VIRGA MONDAY
AFTER WHICH COULD PRODUCE SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, BUT MOST LIKELY ALL
VIRGA/PRECIPITATION WILL SAY WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. INCREASING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, DECREASING FROM 20KFT THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12KFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN ARIZONA,
WHICH COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, HOWEVER THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL ARIZONA. VFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 10KFT-15KFT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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