693
FXUS65 KVEF 060454
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
955 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LARGELY DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY ON MONDAY.
* OUR NEXT NOTABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LARGELY HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PROMOTING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ~5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, WITH A MORE GRADUAL WARMING ANTICIPATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THE PEAK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ~10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10%
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THIS IS
THANKS TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE AND
INTERACT WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ACROSS AZ. EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WHERE POPS ARE 25-50%.
LATE IN THE WEEK, A MORE NOTABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF A
CUTOFF LOW. AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY, THE KEY TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WOULD PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA. MODELS NOW SUGGEST PHASING IS UNLIKELY, RESULTING IN
A LATER ARRIVAL TIME IN OUR REGION. GIVEN HOW THESE CUTOFF LOWS LIKE
TO TAKE THEIR TIME, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SLOWING TREND.
THAT SAID, LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
MINOR WIND IMPACTS MAY BEGIN ON THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY, THE
CUTOFF LOW SCENARIO IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA, ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW CAN POSITION ITSELF NEAR SAN DIEGO
AND/OR MOVE OVERHEAD. LATEST NBM PAINTS A SMATTERING OF 20-50%
POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
TRACK SHOWN IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 23Z
ORIGINATING FROM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ARIZONA.
CURRENT TAF SHOWS THIS WIND DIRECTION SHIFT, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SPEEDS OVER 8 KTS REACHING THE TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
SCT-BKN AOA 12 KFT EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES AND A MODERATE CHANCE FOR
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE A SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT
IN THE LATE-MORNING TO EARLY-AFTERNOON FROM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN ARIZONA. ADDITIONALLY, KDAG WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WEST
WINDS AFTER SUNSET AROUND 25 KTS. SCT-BKN AOA 12 KFT EXPECTED
THROUGH 00Z WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...SOULAT
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