135
FXUS65 KVEF 061808
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1108 AM PDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LARGELY DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO MOHAVE COUNTY TODAY.
* OUR NEXT NOTABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR EXCEPT FOR
DAILY AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. ALTHOUGH THIS
SHORTWAVE DOESN'T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, IT WILL
PULL UP SOME ANOMALOUS MOISTURE THAT IS POOLED OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHEAST AND INTO MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, PWS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH, THIS IS STILL QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR APRIL AS THESE NUMBERS
ARE ABOUT 200-250% OF NORMAL. MOST OF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY, THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE
/25-50%/ OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT BEING GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LATE IN THE WEEK, A MORE NOTABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF A
CUTOFF LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
MINOR WIND IMPACTS MAY BEGIN ON THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY, THE CUTOFF
LOW SCENARIO IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA,
ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW CAN POSITION ITSELF NEAR SAN DIEGO AND/OR MOVE
OVERHEAD. LATEST NBM PAINTS A SMATTERING OF 20-50% POPS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TRACK SHOWN IN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WINDS REACHING OVER 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z, DEPENDING ON WHETHER OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM STORMS OVER ARIZONA REACH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND A LOW CHANCE IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY OF INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ORIGINATING FROM STORMS OVER
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER EXCEPTION IS THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT INCLUDING KDAG, WHERE WESTERLY GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW/WOODS
AVIATION...MELTZER
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