196
FXUS65 KVEF 251743
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1042 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK,
THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST OF CALIFORNIA, AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN CONUS TROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY, DEEPENING INTO A
CUTOFF LOW BEFORE MIGRATING INLAND AS AN OPEN WAVE. THE PRIMARY
VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON, PROGRESSING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AND GIVEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL,
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN, WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 60 TO
90 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, ESMERALDA COUNTY, AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NYE COUNTY WHERE AROUND 100 TO 200 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, AND WHERE ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STEADILY
DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, DROPPING TO AROUND 20 TO 40
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-15. ADDITIONALLY, AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, A LIGHT DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT, GENERALLY AT ELEVATIONS OVER 7000
FEET. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
AND MORONGO BASIN, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED, POSSIBLY STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STORMS. AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSING
SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TODAY AND SUNDAY, DROPPING TO
AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, THOUGH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 0.75
INCH FOR THE DURATION.
HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED AS
PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FINE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, GIVEN SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVES BETWEEN DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
REGARDLESS, THESE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK,
WITH BRIEF WARM-UPS BETWEEN SYSTEMS, FOLLOWED BY SUBTLE COOL-
DOWNS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKEND'S TROUGH, A MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT OF THE AREA, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY
TUNED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
AT TIMES INTO THE EVENING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CHANCE (20 TO
25 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE VALLEY AFTER
03Z, WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE STARTING OFF DRY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS AT THE TERMINAL IF SHOWERS MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH CIGS OF 6 TO 8KFT AGL
ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END
BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT SHORTLY THEREAFTER. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS, WITH HIGHER WESTERLY
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT,
INCLUDING KDAG. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN INYO COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CIGS TO 3KFT
AGL, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR ANY OF THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH, THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
LOWER AND WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
CIGS DROPPING TO 8KFT AGL AND LIGHTER RAIN TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF INYO, ESMERALDA, AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES TONIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...PLANZ
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