106
FXUS65 KVEF 191841
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1141 AM PDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WARMING TREND WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
* MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WESTERN
U.S. STORM SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IS ON DECK IN THE
WAKE OF SUNDAY'S POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. LINGERING
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
AREA LAKES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW. THIS MAY PROMOTE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL BY TOMORROW,
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF MODERATE HEAT RISK NAMELY ACROSS DEATH VALLEY AND THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY REGION. WHILE THIS IS NOT THE HIGHEST
CATEGORY OF HEAT RISK, IT STILL REPRESENTS A THREAT, ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE NOT ACCLIMATED TO DESERT WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND WITH
THE ABUNDANCE OF OUTDOOR RECREATION EXPECTED OVER THE COMING
WEEKEND. FOLKS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS IF
PLANNING ON BEING OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND.
AS WE ENTER NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES PAINT A VERY UNCERTAIN PICTURE
AS TO EXACTLY HOW THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. THERE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A WEAKER UPPER LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THESE
FEATURES, WHICH IS VERY RELEVANT ON HOW THEY MAY INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER AND IMPACT LOCAL WEATHER. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN
THE CONTINUATION OF WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS, THERE IS ALSO A LOW
PROBABILITY OF INCREASING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD DECREASING TO
15-18KT. AS WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, GUSTS
WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT, WITH SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND
DIRECTION EXPECTED BETWEEN 020-060 TRUE. AFTER SUNSET WINDS BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-10KT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KT THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
TERRAIN-ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM
KIFP TO KEED WILL GUST TO AROUND 30KT THROUGH SUNSET, DIMINISHING
THEREAFTER. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY
DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8-10KT. TONIGHT, WINDS
AREAWIDE WILL DROP TO 5-10KT, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS RETURNING
LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KIFP AND KEED, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT AROUND 25KT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREAWIDE, WITH A FEW BANDS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...AUSTIN
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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