048
FXUS65 KVEF 092327
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
427 PM PDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE HIGH FIRE DANGER
TODAY.
* A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING HEAT RISK BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
* TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY BRINGING DECREASING WINDS, BUT WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH 9 PM PDT/MST. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES, MAKING THE HEAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES PEAK ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE
INCREASE IN DAYTIME HIGHS AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BRINGS
WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK TO THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IN MANY DESERT VALLEYS
INCLUDING DEATH VALLEY, THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AND THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL AFFECT
ANYONE WITHOUT ACCESS TO SUFFICIENT COOLING AND HYDRATION,
ESPECIALLY THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
THE ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEMS BORIS AND CRISTINA WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 DEGREES NORTH JUST OFF THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICAN COASTS. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW ANOMALOUS PWATS
FROM ABOUT 200-225% PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH
PWATS NEAR 150-200% WORKING AT FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. WE MAY END UP SEEING ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO HELP SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY BETWEEN 160 AND 230. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
SOUTHWEST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH GUSTS FALLING OFF
AFTER SUNSET. ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THERMALLY-INDUCED AFTERNOON GUSTS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. BEST CHANCES OF TEMPERATURES AT OR
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WILL BE BETWEEN 19 AND 04Z, WITH A FORECAST
HIGH OF 105.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY TAF SITES THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT THERMALLY-INDUCED WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. KDAG
WILL HAVE WEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS THROUGH SUNSET.
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT BREEZY WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS FAVORING DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. KBIH WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNAL. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST TODAY AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WIND WILL TURN TO
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH COMBINED WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY IN THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE WILL YIELD ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
SPREAD RAPIDLY. THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA ZONES AND THE NEVADA SIDE OF THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND WINDS WEAKEN.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...GORELOW
AVIATION...SOULAT
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