073
FXUS65 KVEF 100453
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
953 PM PDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE HIGH FIRE DANGER
TODAY.
* A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING HEAT RISK BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
* TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY BRINGING DECREASING WINDS, BUT WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH 9 PM PDT/MST. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES, MAKING THE HEAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES PEAK ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE
INCREASE IN DAYTIME HIGHS AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT LOWS BRINGS
WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK TO THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IN MANY DESERT VALLEYS
INCLUDING DEATH VALLEY, THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AND THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL AFFECT
ANYONE WITHOUT ACCESS TO SUFFICIENT COOLING AND HYDRATION,
ESPECIALLY THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
THE ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEMS BORIS AND CRISTINA WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 DEGREES NORTH JUST OFF THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICAN COASTS. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW ANOMALOUS PWATS
FROM ABOUT 200-225% PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH
PWATS NEAR 150-200% WORKING AT FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. WE MAY END UP SEEING ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO HELP SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
ON
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THERMALLY-INDUCED LATE-AFTERNOON GUSTS FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS, BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT AND
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 7 AND 10 KTS. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER. BEST CHANCES OF TEMPERATURES AT OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES WILL
BE BETWEEN 19 AND 04Z, WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 105.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...EXPECT THERMALLY-INDUCED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES WITH GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KTS. KDAG WILL HAVE BREEZY WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 15 KTS FAVORING
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. KBIH WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNAL UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY WHEN BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP.
NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST TODAY AND THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WIND WILL TURN TO
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH COMBINED WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY IN THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE WILL YIELD ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
SPREAD RAPIDLY. THEREFORE, THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA ZONES AND THE NEVADA SIDE OF THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND WINDS WEAKEN.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...GORELOW
AVIATION...SOULAT
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