897
FXUS65 KVEF 110806
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
106 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AS HEIGHTS RISE TODAY THEN PEAK ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK SOMEWHAT FROM FRIDAY AS THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WANE AND MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED TO THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAJOR HEATRISK IS
POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTIONS OF DEATH VALLEY, LAS VEGAS VALLEY, AND THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HOWEVER IT WILL BE
ISOLATED IN AREA AS WELL AS LONGEVITY. THIS IS DECENTLY CAPTURED IN
PROBABILITY FOR MAJOR HEATRISK, FOR EXAMPLE: IN LAS VEGAS
PROBABILITIES FOR MAJOR HEATRISK PEAKS ON FRIDAY AROUND 50% THEN
DECREASES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SEEMS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
RISK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THIS SUMMER. MOISTURE IS ADVERTISED TO ADVECT NORTH
THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY LIMIT HEATING IN AREAS OF ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA. WITH ALL THESE FACTORS IN MIND, DECIDED TO NOT
ISSUE ANY HEAT PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. THIS TYPE OF HEAT CAN BE HAZARDOUS TO ANYONE WHO HAS
PROLONGED OUTDOOR PLANS, IS SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT, IS NOT ACCLIMATED
TO THE DESERT, OR DOES NOT HAVE ACCESS TO COOLING OR WATER.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE WANES AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION, AND MAJOR
HEATRISK BECOMES MORE OF A RISK IN DESERT VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SHOWED A DECENTLY ORGANIZED MCV WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
FEATURE WILL WANE BUT BE A SOURCE OF INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PWATS OF 0.75" TO 1.00" SPREAD THROUGH
CLARK, EASTERN LINCOLN, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE MINIMAL SYNOPTIC FORCING OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MAINLY FOCUSING ON THE TERRAIN. HOWEVER
WILL NEED TO WATCH WHAT THE MCV REMNANT DO AS IT COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN SOUTHERN CLARK, EASTERN
LINCOLN, AND MOHAVE COUNTY. LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE TO SATURATE AFTER
BEING VERY DRY, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN RISK BUT COULD
INCREASE FOR SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY PRECIPITATION. IF ENOUGH
LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR, DRY LIGHTNING COULD BRING AN INCREASED FIRE
RISK. SPC SHOWS A 10% CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING IN LINCOLN AND
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL WANE MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK,
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING WITH IT.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES WITH
DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY BETWEEN 030 AND 060 AND GUST SPEEDS PEAKING
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES... BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. THURSDAY'S FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE IS 104F, WITH BEST CHANCES OF 100F BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES AND
NORTH WINDS TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE
WITH GUST SPEEDS PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. KBIH IS CURRENTLY
GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. KDAG WILL GUST FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 25 KTS. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...SOULAT
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