066
FXUS65 KVEF 111755 CCA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1054 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AS HEIGHTS RISE TODAY THEN PEAK ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK SOMEWHAT FROM FRIDAY AS THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WANE AND MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED TO THE
ATMOSPHERE, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAJOR
HEATRISK IS POSSIBLE IN SOME PORTIONS OF DEATH VALLEY, LAS VEGAS
VALLEY, AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
HOWEVER IT WILL BE ISOLATED IN AREA AS WELL AS LONGEVITY. THIS IS
DECENTLY CAPTURED IN PROBABILITY FOR MAJOR HEATRISK, FOR EXAMPLE: IN
LAS VEGAS PROBABILITIES FOR MAJOR HEATRISK PEAKS ON FRIDAY AROUND
50% THEN DECREASES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SEEMS MORE REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE RISK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS SUMMER. MOISTURE IS ADVERTISED TO ADVECT
NORTH THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY LIMIT HEATING IN AREAS OF ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA. WITH ALL THESE FACTORS IN MIND, DECIDED TO NOT
ISSUE ANY HEAT PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. THIS TYPE OF HEAT CAN BE HAZARDOUS TO ANYONE WHO HAS
PROLONGED OUTDOOR PLANS, IS SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT, IS NOT ACCLIMATED
TO THE DESERT, OR DOES NOT HAVE ACCESS TO COOLING OR WATER.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE WANES AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION, AND MAJOR
HEATRISK BECOMES MORE OF A RISK IN DESERT VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SHOWED A DECENTLY ORGANIZED MCV WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
FEATURE WILL WANE BUT BE A SOURCE OF INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PWATS OF 0.75" TO 1.00" SPREAD THROUGH
CLARK, EASTERN LINCOLN, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE MINIMAL SYNOPTIC FORCING OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MAINLY FOCUSING ON THE TERRAIN. HOWEVER
WILL NEED TO WATCH WHAT THE MCV REMNANT DO AS IT COULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN SOUTHERN CLARK, EASTERN
LINCOLN, AND MOHAVE COUNTY. LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE TO SATURATE AFTER
BEING VERY DRY, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN RISK BUT COULD
INCREASE FOR SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY PRECIPITATION. IF ENOUGH
LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR, DRY LIGHTNING COULD BRING AN INCREASED FIRE
RISK. SPC SHOWS A 10% CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING IN LINCOLN AND
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL WANE MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK,
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING WITH IT.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
18 KNOTS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AND
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIMITED VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING AS DUST/HAZE PUSHED INTO THE VALLEY. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER, ALTHOUGH WE WILL START TO SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURE IS 104F, WITH BEST CHANCES OF 100F BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
OVER MOST TAF SITES TODAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
AT KBIH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 8 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. KDAG WILL SHIFT WEST AFTER 02Z WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...GORELOW
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