563
FXUS65 KVEF 112022
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
122 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
* MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT AROUND 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON TOP OF THAT
FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) ON FRIDAY, WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, LAS VEGAS
VALLEY, AMARGOSA VALLEY, AND DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OVER THE WEEKEND, FLUCTUATING A DEGREE
OR TWO FROM DAY TO DAY BEFORE TAKING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK PERSISTING IN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES TAKE OFF NEXT WEEK,
HEATRISK WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH MAJOR HEATRISK BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEATRISK (LEVEL 4 OF 4) TO
BEGIN POPPING UP IN SOME AREAS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV
CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA/BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY LATE TOMORROW, SPILLING OVER INTO NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OVER
THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AROUND 0.75 TO 1.0
INCHES IN MOHAVE, CLARK, SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, AND EASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER PWS IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ALONE IS NOT
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, WE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME
HEATING AS OUR MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MEANING AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
FAVORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND PENDING ANY DECAYING MCVS DRIFTING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF FORCING, THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS
MOISTURE WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIMITED TO THE MID- LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS MEANS THAT VIRGA SHOWERS CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION THAT DOES NOT END UP PRODUCING MODERATE- TO- HEAVY
RAIN. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
18 KNOTS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AND
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIMITED VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING AS DUST/HAZE PUSHED INTO THE VALLEY. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KNOTS. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER, ALTHOUGH WE WILL START TO SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURE IS 104F, WITH BEST CHANCES OF 100F BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
OVER MOST TAF SITES TODAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, BUT DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
AT KBIH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 8 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. KDAG WILL SHIFT WEST AFTER 02Z WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...GORELOW
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