833
FXUS65 KVEF 120914 CCA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
213 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
* MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT AROUND 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON TOP OF THAT
FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) ON FRIDAY, WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, LAS VEGAS
VALLEY, AMARGOSA VALLEY, AND DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OVER THE WEEKEND, FLUCTUATING A DEGREE
OR TWO FROM DAY TO DAY BEFORE TAKING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK PERSISTING IN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES TAKE OFF NEXT WEEK,
HEATRISK WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH MAJOR HEATRISK BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEATRISK (LEVEL 4 OF 4) TO
BEGIN POPPING UP IN SOME AREAS.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MCV MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTH ALONG THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA/BAJA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATE TOMORROW, SPILLING OVER INTO
NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES IN MOHAVE, CLARK, SOUTHEASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO, AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
PWS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING AS OUR MAIN SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MEANING
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND PENDING ANY DECAYING MCVS
DRIFTING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF
FORCING, THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS MOISTURE WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE
LIMITED TO THE MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS MEANS THAT
VIRGA SHOWERS CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THAT DOES NOT END UP
PRODUCING MODERATE- TO- HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 12Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8KT WILL SET UP AROUND 18Z
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO
20KT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21Z THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTS WILL
END AROUND SUNSET BUT ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 8KT AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES
BETWEEN 18Z THROUGH 04Z ON FRIDAY. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT
WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WEST WINDS AT 10-15KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT KDAG. ELSEWHERE, WINDS UNDER
10KT ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, GUSTING 15-25KT IN MOST LOCATIONS. KDAG WILL
SEE WEST WINDS UP TO 25KT STARTING AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY, THEN AROUND KBIH IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCE IS
LOW (20% OR LESS). IF PRECIPITATION WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SUDDEN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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