242
FXUS65 KVEF 121936
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1236 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAJOR
HEAT RISK INCREASING IN COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER TEXAS IS IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO SEND TROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY VISIBLE ON
RADAR IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
PROCEED NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY ARE OVER HIGH
TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND ALONG THE SIERRA WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS THE GREATEST. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW
MORE ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA ALONG WITH
GREATER COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA TOMORROW
AS THE MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AND DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO VIRGA. THE
GREATER CONCERN IS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE
OF THESE STORMS AND DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. DCAPE VALUES REACH UP
TO 2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DRY LIGHTNING
POSE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WIND DOWN ON SUNDAY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. HEAT
BECOMES THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THIS INCLUDES HIGHS IN THE LOW 110S IN LAS VEGAS AND THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AND THE LOW 120S IN DEATH VALLEY. MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS DUE TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 18Z THROUGH
04Z. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS EXPECTED AT KDAG THROUGH 23Z BEFORE SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY
AFTER 00Z AND GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE, SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, GUSTING 15-25
KNOTS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND KBIH AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA, BUT
THE CHANCE IS LOW (20% OR LESS). IF PRECIPITATION WERE ABLE TO
DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE SUDDEN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...GORELOW
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