111
FXUS65 KVEF 122326
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
420 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAJOR
HEAT RISK INCREASING IN COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER TEXAS IS IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO SEND TROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY VISIBLE ON
RADAR IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
PROCEED NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY ARE OVER HIGH
TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND ALONG THE SIERRA WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS THE GREATEST. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW
MORE ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA ALONG WITH
GREATER COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA TOMORROW
AS THE MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AND DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO VIRGA. THE
GREATER CONCERN IS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE
OF THESE STORMS AND DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. DCAPE VALUES REACH UP
TO 2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DRY LIGHTNING
POSE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WIND DOWN ON SUNDAY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. HEAT
BECOMES THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THIS INCLUDES HIGHS IN THE LOW 110S IN LAS VEGAS AND THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AND THE LOW 120S IN DEATH VALLEY. MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS DUE TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 00Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7-10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
KNOTS, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AFTER 03Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTER 19Z
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE, STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 100 DEGREES AROUND
04Z THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...AT KDAG, EXPECT WEST
WIND AROUND 10-20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH
08Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE, SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS
EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST
ARIZONA, AND PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KEED, KIFP, AND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...GORELOW
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