241
FXUS65 KVEF 130351
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
851 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAJOR
HEAT RISK INCREASING IN COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER TEXAS IS IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION TO SEND TROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY VISIBLE ON
RADAR IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
PROCEED NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-15
CORRIDOR. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY ARE OVER HIGH
TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND ALONG THE SIERRA WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS THE GREATEST. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW
MORE ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA ALONG WITH
GREATER COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA TOMORROW
AS THE MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES NORTH. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AND DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO VIRGA. THE
GREATER CONCERN IS GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE
OF THESE STORMS AND DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. DCAPE VALUES REACH UP
TO 2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DRY LIGHTNING
POSE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO WIND DOWN ON SUNDAY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. HEAT
BECOMES THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THIS INCLUDES HIGHS IN THE LOW 110S IN LAS VEGAS AND THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AND THE LOW 120S IN DEATH VALLEY. MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED IN
THESE LOCATIONS DUE TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME REESTABLISHED. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AFTER 20Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, THERE IS A CHANCE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL AREA AFTER 00Z. TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100F
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z, PEAKING AROUND 106F IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...AT KDAG, GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 08Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 12
KNOTS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS RETURN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST
ARIZONA, AND PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS,
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
AND LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES, AS WELL AS KBIH.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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