772
FXUS65 KVEF 130927
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
227 AM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA.
* AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND
12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS BORIS AND CRISTINA TO SURGE NORTHWARD
INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT THIS WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY
HIGH - AROUND 600 MB - WITH VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ARE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL, AS MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE
BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND. THAT SAID, WITH 1500 J/KG OF DCAPE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND OVER 2500 J/KG OF DCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA, THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ARE LIKELY TO CREATE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FROM THEIR DIRECTION, WITH GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (15-30%) EXIST OVER
THE EASTERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NYE,
LINCOLN, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES, THOUGH WITH 0.8-1.00 INCHES OF PWAT
AND THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT, CANNOT RULE OUT FORMATION ON ANY
AREA MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND A FURTHER WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY
OUT FOR THE WORK WEEK.
ELEVATED HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, AS DESERT VALLEYS GEAR UP
FOR WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH POCKETS OF
EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4). LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY,
MOAPA VALLEY, COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MORONGO VALLEY, AND DEATH
VALLEY CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S, WHICH WILL
EXACERBATE HEAT ILLNESS-RELATED SYMPTOMS IN THOSE WITHOUT PROPER
COOLING. THERE IS AN INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF LATE-
WEEK AS A TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS
MORNING. A PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED STARTING JUST
BEFORE 18Z WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KT. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND
21Z AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED NEAR THE TERMINALS,
THERE IS A CHANCE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL
AREA AFTER 00Z. MOST LIKELY, GUSTS WILL END AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
06Z. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 8KT BY 09Z AND CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES
BETWEEN 18Z THROUGH 04Z. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WEST WINDS AT 10-15KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT KDAG. ELSEWHERE, WINDS UNDER
10KT ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, GUSTING 15-25KT IN MOST LOCATIONS. KDAG WILL
SEE WEST WINDS UP TO 25KT STARTING AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST
ARIZONA, AND PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND SUDDEN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO TAF TERMINALS BEING AT
KBIH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WANE AFTER
SUNSET, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AS WELL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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