621
FXUS65 KVEF 131754
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1054 AM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA.
* AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND
12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS BORIS AND CRISTINA TO SURGE NORTHWARD
INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT THIS WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY
HIGH - AROUND 600 MB - WITH VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ARE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL, AS MUCH OF IT WILL EVAPORATE
BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND. THAT SAID, WITH 1500 J/KG OF DCAPE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND OVER 2500 J/KG OF DCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA, THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ARE LIKELY TO CREATE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FROM THEIR DIRECTION, WITH GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (15-30%) EXIST OVER
THE EASTERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NYE,
LINCOLN, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES, THOUGH WITH 0.8-1.00 INCHES OF PWAT
AND THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT, CANNOT RULE OUT FORMATION ON ANY
AREA MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND A FURTHER WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY
OUT FOR THE WORK WEEK.
ELEVATED HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, AS DESERT VALLEYS GEAR UP
FOR WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH POCKETS OF
EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4). LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY,
MOAPA VALLEY, COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MORONGO VALLEY, AND DEATH
VALLEY CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S, WHICH WILL
EXACERBATE HEAT ILLNESS-RELATED SYMPTOMS IN THOSE WITHOUT PROPER
COOLING. THERE IS AN INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF LATE-
WEEK AS A TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BEFORE
VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY TO MID- AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 12KT, WITH GUSTS UP TO
20KT THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY, WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE VALLEY, WITH A VERY LOW (UNDER 10%) CHANCE FOR ANY
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW TO IMPACT WINDS IN THE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DROP UNDER 8KT, WITH ELEVATED AND
INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING
SUNDAY, VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE 107F, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 100F THROUGH 04-05Z THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN 18Z-04Z SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ELEVATED AND AT LEAST
INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT COMMON
THROUGH SUNSET, WHEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH, DROPPING TO
5-10KT OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING KDAG, WHERE WINDS WILL PREVAIL MORE
WESTERLY, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KT THIS AFTERNOON, AND ELEVATED WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND ALONG THE
SIERRA, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED BLOWING DUST. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST OF KIFP AND KEED, THOUGH TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL
BE MONITORED. THERE IS ALSO A WINDOW FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEN STORMS MOVING EAST OFF THE SIERRA INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF KBIH, WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING. AWAY FROM STORMS,
NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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