854
FXUS65 KVEF 132015
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
115 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA.
* AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND
12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES AND ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS UNDERWAY NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING IN LAS VEGAS INDICATED MOST MOISTURE ABOVE
600 MB ALONG WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF DCAPE. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SHOW PERSISTENT STORM FORMATION PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ENCOURAGES STORM FORMATION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
FAVOR STORM FORMATION ALONG HIGH TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA AS WELL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THESE STORMS
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, LITTLE RAINFALL WILL REACH
THE SURFACE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. DRY LIGHTNING
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADS TO THE WEST
TOMORROW AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA BEFORE CONDITIONS
DRY OUT BY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE.
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND THE MOJAVE DESERT DUE TO HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RELIEF FROM WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION,
ESPECIALLY THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO
DECREASE AGAIN AS THE RIDGE TRACKS EAST AND HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BEFORE
VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY TO MID- AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 12KT, WITH GUSTS UP TO
20KT THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY, WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE VALLEY, WITH A VERY LOW (UNDER 10%) CHANCE FOR ANY
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW TO IMPACT WINDS IN THE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL DROP UNDER 8KT, WITH ELEVATED AND
INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING
SUNDAY, VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE 107F, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 100F THROUGH 04-05Z THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN 18Z-04Z SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ELEVATED AND AT LEAST
INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT COMMON
THROUGH SUNSET, WHEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH, DROPPING TO
5-10KT OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING KDAG, WHERE WINDS WILL PREVAIL MORE
WESTERLY, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KT THIS AFTERNOON, AND ELEVATED WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND ALONG THE
SIERRA, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED BLOWING DUST. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST OF KIFP AND KEED, THOUGH TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL
BE MONITORED. THERE IS ALSO A WINDOW FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEN STORMS MOVING EAST OFF THE SIERRA INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF KBIH, WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING. AWAY FROM STORMS,
NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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