058
FXUS65 KVEF 132257
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
357 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA.
* AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND
12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES AND ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS UNDERWAY NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING IN LAS VEGAS INDICATED MOST MOISTURE ABOVE
600 MB ALONG WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF DCAPE. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SHOW PERSISTENT STORM FORMATION PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ENCOURAGES STORM FORMATION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
FAVOR STORM FORMATION ALONG HIGH TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA AS WELL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THESE STORMS
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, LITTLE RAINFALL WILL REACH
THE SURFACE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. DRY LIGHTNING
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADS TO THE WEST
TOMORROW AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA BEFORE CONDITIONS
DRY OUT BY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE.
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND THE MOJAVE DESERT DUE TO HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RELIEF FROM WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION,
ESPECIALLY THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO
DECREASE AGAIN AS THE RIDGE TRACKS EAST AND HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET, PREVAILING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST (BETWEEN 190-230 TRUE). SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10-15KT
WILL GUST TO AROUND 20-22KT BEFORE DIMINISHING, WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO DROP UNDER 10KT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE
VALLEY, WITH A VERY LOW (UNDER 10%) CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW TO IMPACT WINDS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MID-
MORNING SUNDAY, INTERMITTENT SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15- 20KT
WILL RESUME, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO
AROUND 25KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE 107F, WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100F
THROUGH 04-05Z THIS EVENING. SUNDAY, SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM BEHAVIOR
IS EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100F FROM ROUGHLY
18Z-04Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ELEVATED AND AT LEAST
INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER,
DROPPING TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING KDAG, WHERE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WESTERLY, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KT INTO TONIGHT, WITH A LULL
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE GUSTS RESUME.
ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT
COMMON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND ALONG THE SIERRA, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED BLOWING
DUST. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT MAY BE IMPACTED IS KBIH IN THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY, WHERE STORMS AND ACCOMPANYING OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OFF OF THE SIERRA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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